| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, February 24, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
Volume and Price increased together for FRX this week. According to the Wilder RSI, FRX is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It seems to be rising, coming from 102.06% to 102.09% in the past month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 3/1/2010 : The candle on 3/1/2010 is a Star long day. This is after a Star medium bodyon the preceeding session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, February 24, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of FRX by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See FRX Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See FRX Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See FRX Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Forest Laboratories, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See FRX Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Forest Laboratories, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in FRX stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of FRX.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward FRX. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of FRX prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Forest Laboratories, Inc. historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the FRX historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to FRX over the next few months? See FRX Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Forest Laboratories, Inc. speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See FRX Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Forest Laboratories, Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See FRX Final Results . |
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