| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Wednesday, February 17, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
The volume fell this week on GD while the price rose. So caution is advised. GD does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The most recent candle is a Star long day, following the Shadowed short body on the previous session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Wednesday, February 17, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of General Dynamics. See GD Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See GD Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See GD Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See GD Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of General Dynamics prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in GD stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to GD historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of GD.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward General Dynamics show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of GD prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of General Dynamics historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the GD historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to GD over the next few months? See GD Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for GD. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See GD Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for General Dynamics gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See GD Final Results . |
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