| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: This week has not seen any highly significant signals. On Thursday, December 18, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible buy alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, January 03, 2009:
Although the price increased by 14.06 % for GM this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. No buy signal yet, but the Wilder RSI is becoming more bullish. The conventional RSI is almost unchanged from the previous week. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It is up for the week, but down for the month. Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, GM would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -69.00 % under the line. From the Update 1/2/2009 : The candle representing 1/2/2009 was a Shadowed short body after a stepped down nearly pure long day previously. A shadowed session is one with an open-to-close range that is completely within the bounds of the previous day's open-to-close range. This indicates a lack of direction in the market for this issue. This week has not seen any highly significant signals. On Thursday, December 18, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible buy alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at General Motors begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See GM Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See GM Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of GM stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See GM Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See GM Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of General Motors prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in GM stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of GM.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of GM stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward General Motors show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of General Motors historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of General Motors in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See GM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for General Motors speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See GM Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for General Motors gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See GM Final Results . |
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