| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, February 18, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
As of Friday, March 12, 2010, the closing price has been up for 3 days in a row. Falling price on increasing volume can be bad news for HAL or any other issue. Losses were limited to -1.19 % for the week. HAL does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The recent session is represented as a Star medium body, following the medium body on Tuesday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, February 18, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: HAL Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of HAL by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See HAL Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See HAL Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See HAL Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See HAL Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Halliburton prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in HAL stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of HAL.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Halliburton show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of HAL prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Halliburton in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to HAL over the next few months? See HAL Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for HAL. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See HAL Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Halliburton gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See HAL Final Results . |
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