| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Thursday, March 11, 2010. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
As of Friday, March 12, 2010, the closing price has been up for 4 days in a row. The price of HD rose by 2.79 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It seems to be rising, coming from 101.98% to 102.02% in the past month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The candle for3/17/2010 was a Star short body SpinningTop coming after the prior day's Shadowed short body SpinningTop. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Thursday, March 11, 2010. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of HD:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Home Depot, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See HD Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See HD Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See HD Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See HD Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Home Depot prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of HD.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward HD. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of HD prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Home Depot historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the HD historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See HD Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for HD. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See HD Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Home Depot gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See HD Final Results . |
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