| Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Tuesday, April 11, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. Supposedly a buy signal, the actual annualized advantage (short term) has been -3.00 % for this company. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, June 02, 2007:
The volume fell this week on HEC while the price rose. So caution is advised. HEC seems fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, and the position is moving to the bullish. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The NVI shows a normal pattern. Not much buying is going on on down days. This indicator is down over the last month. Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, HEC would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -16.00 % under the line. From the Update 4/13/2006 : The recent session is represented as a medium body, following the Doji on Monday. The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Tuesday, April 11, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. Supposedly a buy signal, the actual annualized advantage (short term) has been -3.00 % for this company. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of HEC by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See HEC Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See HEC Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See HEC Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See HEC Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Harken Energy prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of HEC.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Harken Energy show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Harken Energy historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Harken Energy in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to HEC over the next few months? See HEC Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for HEC. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See HEC Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Harken Energy gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See HEC Final Results . |
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