| Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Tuesday, April 11, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. Supposedly a buy signal, the actual annualized advantage (short term) has been -3.00 % for this company. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, June 02, 2007:
Although the price increased by 2.50 % for HEC this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. HEC does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The NVI shows a normal pattern. Not much buying is going on on down days. This indicator is down over the last month. Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, HEC would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -16.00 % under the line. From the Update 4/13/2006 : The last candlestick is seen as a medium body, following the Doji on the previous session. The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Tuesday, April 11, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. Supposedly a buy signal, the actual annualized advantage (short term) has been -3.00 % for this company. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: HEC Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at Harken Energy begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See HEC Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See HEC Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See HEC Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Harken Energy Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See HEC Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Harken Energy prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of HEC.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Harken Energy show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Harken Energy in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See HEC Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Harken Energy speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See HEC Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Harken Energy gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See HEC Final Results . |
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