| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Friday, December 19, 2008. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 27, 2008:
Looking back from Friday, December 26, 2008, the past 2 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. When both price and volume fall, as was the case with HON this week, a lack of buying interest is indicated. Sometimes this presents an opportunity. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 12/26/2008 : The candle on 12/26/2008 is a Star Doji. This is after a Star short bodyon the preceeding session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Today, we see a "Doji Star" which shows a peculiar combination of new direction and low inner volatility. This important sign is often seen at market tops and bottoms, and many believe it to be a sign of a coming reversal. A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Friday, December 19, 2008. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Honeywell, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See HON Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See HON Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See HON Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See HON Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Honeywell prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of HON.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Honeywell show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Honeywell historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Honeywell in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to HON over the next few months? See HON Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for HON. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See HON Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Honeywell gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See HON Final Results . |
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