|Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: No really strong signals during the past week. On Monday, October 18, 2010, the "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report.
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of IBM:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for International Business Machines, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See IBM Classical Analysis.
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See IBM Volatility Risk.
This section shows historical volumes for sales of IBM stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See IBM Historical Volume.
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of International Business Machines Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See IBM Calendar Year Trends.
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of International Business Machines prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in IBM stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of IBM.
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of IBM stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward IBM. See Market Sentiment.
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the IBM historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to IBM over the next few months? See IBM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for International Business Machines speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See IBM Multi-Company Strategies .
The statistical abstract for International Business Machines gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See IBM Final Results .
More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for International Business Machines: