| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Thursday, February 18, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Looking back from Friday, March 12, 2010, the past 3 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for IBM. Conditions are becoming more favorable, according to the 14 bar Wilder RSI, but the values are in the middle of the range, indicating this issue is probably near the fair price for the time being. There is a favorable category change from last week's close. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/12/2010 : The last candlestick is seen as a Star Doji Man, following the stepped up nearly pure long day on the previous session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Today, we see a "Doji Star" which shows a peculiar combination of new direction and low inner volatility. This important sign is often seen at market tops and bottoms, and many believe it to be a sign of a coming reversal. No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Thursday, February 18, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of IBM:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of International Business Machines. See IBM Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of International Business Machines prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See IBM Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See IBM Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of International Business Machines Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See IBM Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of International Business Machines prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of IBM.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward International Business Machines show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the IBM historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See IBM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for IBM. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See IBM Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for International Business Machines gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See IBM Final Results . |
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