| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A signal from the "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20", was flagged on Tuesday, March 16, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Looking back from Friday, March 12, 2010, the past 4 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. Volume and Price increased together for INTC this week. INTC does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 103.44% to 103.46% in the past month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The most recent candle is a Star medium body, following the Star nearly pure long day on the previous session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. A signal from the "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20", was flagged on Tuesday, March 16, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Intel, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See INTC Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See INTC Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See INTC Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See INTC Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Intel prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in INTC stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of INTC.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of INTC stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Intel show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Intel historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Intel in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to INTC over the next few months? See INTC Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for INTC. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See INTC Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Intel gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See INTC Final Results . |
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