| Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Wednesday, November 03, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: JCP Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at J.C. Penney Company, Inc. begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See JCP Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See JCP Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of JCP stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See JCP Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See JCP Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of J.C. Penney Company, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in JCP stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of JCP.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward J.C. Penney Company, Inc. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the JCP historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to JCP over the next few months? See JCP Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for JCP. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See JCP Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for J.C. Penney Company, Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See JCP Final Results . |
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