| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, February 11, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 20, 2010:
Although the price increased by 2.06 % for LEN this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. Caution is advised on account of the unfavorable level of the Wilder RSI, although it has improved in the last week . The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It is up for the week, but down for the month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 2/19/2010 : The candle for2/19/2010 was an Engulfing long day coming after the prior day's Star short body. When a session has an open-to-close range that exceeds the range (body) of the candle from the day before, it is said to be "Engulfing". This higher inner volatility shows uncertainty, perhaps because two groups of speculators disagree on whether the price should be lower or higher than it is. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, February 11, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Lennar Corporation, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See LEN Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See LEN Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See LEN Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Lennar Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See LEN Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Lennar Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of LEN.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of LEN stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Lennar Corporation show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Lennar Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the LEN historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to LEN over the next few months? See LEN Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for LEN. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See LEN Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Lennar Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See LEN Final Results . |
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