| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Monday, March 15, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Looking back from Friday, March 12, 2010, the past 2 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for MCD. According to the Wilder RSI, MCD is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. This indicator is down over the last month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The candle on 3/17/2010 is a Star short body. This comes after a Star short body the day before. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Monday, March 15, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MCD by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MCD Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MCD Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See MCD Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of McDonalds Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MCD Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of McDonalds prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of MCD.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MCD. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of McDonalds in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MCD over the next few months? See MCD Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for McDonalds speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MCD Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for McDonalds gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MCD Final Results . |
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