| Below - Illustration from Chapter 9: VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Friday, December 04, 2009. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 05, 2009:
As of Friday, December 04, 2009, the closing price has been up for 6 days in a row. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for MER. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. This indicator is down over the last month. The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with MER 27.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week. From the Update 12/8/2009 : The candle on 12/8/2009 is a Shadowed short body Hammer. This comes after a Star long day the day before. A shadowed session is one with an open-to-close range that is completely within the bounds of the previous day's open-to-close range. This indicates a lack of direction in the market for this issue. VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Friday, December 04, 2009. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Merrill Lynch, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See MER Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MER Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of MER stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See MER Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Merrill Lynch Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MER Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Merrill Lynch prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in MER stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to MER historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of MER.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Merrill Lynch show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Merrill Lynch historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the MER historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MER Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Merrill Lynch speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MER Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Merrill Lynch gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MER Final Results . |
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