| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, March 03, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
Last week the price of MRO went down and the volume grew. So far, the damage has been limited to a -3.40 % decline for the week. MRO appears to be fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, but it's position is weakening. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line. From the Update 3/3/2010 : The candle representing 3/3/2010 was a Star Doji after a Star short body previously. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Today, we see a "Doji Star" which shows a peculiar combination of new direction and low inner volatility. This important sign is often seen at market tops and bottoms, and many believe it to be a sign of a coming reversal. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, March 03, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: MRO Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MRO by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MRO Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MRO Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See MRO Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See MRO Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Marathon Oil Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to MRO historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of MRO.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MRO. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Marathon Oil Corporation in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MRO Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Marathon Oil Corporation speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MRO Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Marathon Oil Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MRO Final Results . |
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