| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, November 03, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of MSFT:
Chapter 1:
This look at MicroSoft begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See MSFT Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See MSFT Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See MSFT Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See MSFT Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of MicroSoft prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of MSFT.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MSFT. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of MSFT prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of MicroSoft in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MSFT Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for MSFT. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MSFT Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for MicroSoft gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MSFT Final Results . |
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