| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, December 18, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 27, 2008:
Over the past 2 sessions (ending Friday, December 26, 2008), the closing price has been lower than the previous day. The price of MSFT rose by 0.05 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. The Line of Least Resistance is a little bit unfavorable and the RSI has become more bearish since last week. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: This indicator is down over the last month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 12/26/2008 : The most recent candle is a stepped down short body Hammer, following the Star short body on the previous session. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Thursday, December 18, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: MSFT Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MSFT by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MSFT Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See MSFT Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of MSFT stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See MSFT Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of MicroSoft Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MSFT Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of MicroSoft prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in MSFT stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of MSFT.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of MSFT stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MSFT. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of MicroSoft in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MSFT Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for MSFT. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MSFT Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for MicroSoft gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MSFT Final Results . |
| 
Subscribe More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for MicroSoft: |
| |
|
