| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A signal from the "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20", was flagged on Thursday, March 18, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Looking back from Friday, March 12, 2010, the past 5 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. The price of MSFT rose by 2.38 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. MSFT seems fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, and the position is moving to the bullish. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 103.44% to 103.47% in the past month. There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week. From the Update 3/18/2010 : The recent session is represented as a short body SpinningTop, following the Star short body on Wednesday. A signal from the "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20", was flagged on Thursday, March 18, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: MSFT Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of MSFT by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See MSFT Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See MSFT Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of MSFT stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See MSFT Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of MicroSoft Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MSFT Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of MicroSoft prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in MSFT stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of MSFT.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of MSFT stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MSFT. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of MicroSoft in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MSFT Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for MSFT. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MSFT Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for MicroSoft gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MSFT Final Results . |
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