| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: 2 days ago, the 5 session moving average sank under over the 200 session average. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 13, 2010:
As of Friday, February 12, 2010, the closing price has been up for 5 days in a row. The price of MSO rose by 9.15 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. According to the Wilder RSI, MSO is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. After increasing the spread over the week, MSO is now 3.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average. From the Update 2/18/2010 : The latest trading day is represented as a Shadowed short body, coming on the heels of a Star long day on Wednesday. A shadowed session is one with an open-to-close range that is completely within the bounds of the previous day's open-to-close range. This indicates a lack of direction in the market for this issue. 2 days ago, the 5 session moving average sank under over the 200 session average. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of Martha Stewart. See MSO Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MSO Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of MSO stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See MSO Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See MSO Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Martha Stewart prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of MSO.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MSO. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Martha Stewart in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MSO Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for MSO. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MSO Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Martha Stewart gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MSO Final Results . |
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