| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. On Friday, February 19, 2010, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
Volume and Price increased together for MTB this week. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.76% to 100.78% in the past month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/2/2010 : The recent session is represented as a Star short body, following the stepped up medium body on Monday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. No really strong signals during the past week. On Friday, February 19, 2010, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
M&T Bank Corporation historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See MTB Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See MTB Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See MTB Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of M&T Bank Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See MTB Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of M&T Bank Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of MTB.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward MTB. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the MTB historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See MTB Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for M&T Bank Corporation speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See MTB Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for M&T Bank Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See MTB Final Results . |
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