| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Thursday, August 04, 2005. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, August 13, 2005:
It is not good news when the price of NXTL is down and the volume is increasing. Losses were limited to -3.31 % for the week. Although it is better than last week, the RSI level is still a bit unfavorable. The conventional RSI is almost unchanged from the previous week. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It is up for the week, but down for the month. NXTL is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 12.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week. From the Update 8/12/2005 : The candle on 8/12/2005 is an Engulfing long day. This is after a Shadowed medium bodyon the preceeding session. When a session has an open-to-close range that exceeds the range (body) of the candle from the day before, it is said to be "Engulfing". This higher inner volatility shows uncertainty, perhaps because two groups of speculators disagree on whether the price should be lower or higher than it is. A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Thursday, August 04, 2005. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of NXTL:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of NXTL by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See NXTL Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Nextel prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See NXTL Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See NXTL Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See NXTL Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Nextel prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in NXTL stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of NXTL.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward NXTL. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Nextel historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the NXTL historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See NXTL Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Nextel speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See NXTL Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Nextel gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See NXTL Final Results . |
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