| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Wednesday, July 22, 2009. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, August 01, 2009:
As of Friday, July 31, 2009, the closing price has been up for 3 days in a row. When both price and volume fall, as was the case with PCZ this week, a lack of buying interest is indicated. Sometimes this presents an opportunity. PCZ seems fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, and the position is moving to the bullish. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. PCZ is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 45.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week. From the Update 7/31/2009 : The recent session is represented as an Engulfing long day, following the Star short body on Thursday. When a session has an open-to-close range that exceeds the range (body) of the candle from the day before, it is said to be "Engulfing". This higher inner volatility shows uncertainty, perhaps because two groups of speculators disagree on whether the price should be lower or higher than it is. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Wednesday, July 22, 2009. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of PCZ:
Chapter 1:
This look at PetroCanada begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See PCZ Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See PCZ Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See PCZ Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of PetroCanada Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See PCZ Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of PetroCanada prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in PCZ stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of PCZ.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward PCZ. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of PetroCanada historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the PCZ historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to PCZ over the next few months? See PCZ Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for PetroCanada speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See PCZ Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for PetroCanada gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See PCZ Final Results . |
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