| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Wednesday, July 22, 2009. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, August 01, 2009:
Looking back from Friday, July 31, 2009, the past 2 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. It is generally thought to be bad news when both price and volume decline, which is exactly what happened to PCZ this week, but sometimes this situation can be a buying opportunity. PCZ does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. The week revealed PCZ to still be above the 200 bar average, but the space between the price and the average line is narrowing. From the Update 7/31/2009 : The candle representing 7/31/2009 was an Engulfing long day after a Star short body previously. When a session has an open-to-close range that exceeds the range (body) of the candle from the day before, it is said to be "Engulfing". This higher inner volatility shows uncertainty, perhaps because two groups of speculators disagree on whether the price should be lower or higher than it is. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Wednesday, July 22, 2009. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: PCZ Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of PCZ by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See PCZ Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See PCZ Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See PCZ Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of PetroCanada Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See PCZ Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of PetroCanada prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in PCZ stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of PCZ.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward PCZ. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of PCZ prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of PetroCanada in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to PCZ over the next few months? See PCZ Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for PCZ. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See PCZ Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for PetroCanada gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See PCZ Final Results . |
| 
Subscribe More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for PetroCanada: |
| |
|
