| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a buy signal level on Thursday, February 25, 2010. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
Falling price on increasing volume can be bad news for PX or any other issue. So far, the damage has been limited to a -2.70 % decline for the week. PX appears to be fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, but it's position is weakening. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line. From the Update 3/4/2010 : The candle on 3/4/2010 is a stepped up medium body. This comes after a Star short body the day before. The stepped candle has a body that is shadowed at one end only. It can indicate an orderly progression of the market. A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a buy signal level on Thursday, February 25, 2010. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of PX by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See PX Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See PX Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See PX Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See PX Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Praxair, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to PX historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of PX.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Praxair, Inc. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of PX prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Praxair, Inc. in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to PX over the next few months? See PX Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Praxair, Inc. speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See PX Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Praxair, Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See PX Final Results . |
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