| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, October 30, 2009. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, October 31, 2009:
As of closing time on the NYSE Friday, October 30, 2009, the price has been down for 4 days in a row. Last week the price of SGP went down and the volume grew. Losses were limited to -2.66 % for the week. SGP does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The conventional RSI is almost unchanged from the previous week. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. This indicator is down over the last month. The week revealed SGP to still be above the 200 bar average, but the space between the price and the average line is narrowing. From the Update 11/3/2009 : The candle on 11/3/2009 is a stepped down short body. This comes after a stepped up short body the day before. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, October 30, 2009. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of SGP:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of SGP by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See SGP Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See SGP Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See SGP Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See SGP Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Schering-Plough Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in SGP stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of SGP.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward SGP. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Schering-Plough Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Schering-Plough Corporation in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See SGP Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for SGP. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See SGP Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Schering-Plough Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See SGP Final Results . |
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