| Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Friday, March 24, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, August 25, 2007:
Looking back from Friday, August 24, 2007, the past 7 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. The price of SUNW rose by 5.03 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. The Wilder RSI is favorable, and becoming more so, but there is not yet enough strength here to trigger a buy signal. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 99.99% to 100.03% in the past month. Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -10.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week. From the Update 4/13/2006 : The latest trading day is represented as a Star short body, coming on the heels of a stepped up medium body on Thursday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Friday, March 24, 2006. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Sun Microsystems historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See SUNW Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See SUNW Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See SUNW Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See SUNW Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Sun Microsystems prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to SUNW historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of SUNW.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward SUNW. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of SUNW prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Sun Microsystems in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See SUNW Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for SUNW. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See SUNW Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Sun Microsystems gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See SUNW Final Results . |
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