| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: On Friday, March 19, 2010, the "Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 20, 2010:
As of Friday, March 19, 2010, the closing price has been up for 8 days in a row. Although the price increased by 2.42 % for T this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. The Line of Least Resistance is a little bit unfavorable and the RSI has become more bearish since last week. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.27% to 100.30% in the past month. There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week. From the Update 3/19/2010 : The last candlestick is seen as a Star short body, following the Star medium body on the previous session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. On Friday, March 19, 2010, the "Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of T:
Chapter 1:
AT and T historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See T Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See T Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See T Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of AT and T Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See T Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of AT and T prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of T.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward AT and T show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of AT and T in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to T over the next few months? See T Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for T. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See T Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for AT and T gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See T Final Results . |
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