| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, February 17, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
As of Friday, February 26, 2010, the closing price has been up for 5 days in a row. Volume and Price increased together for TLM this week. The Line of Least Resistance is a little bit unfavorable and the RSI has become more bearish since last week. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.40% to 100.48% in the past month. There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week. From the Update 2/26/2010 : The candle on 2/26/2010 is a Star long day. This comes after an Engulfing long day the day before. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Wednesday, February 17, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: TLM Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of TLM by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See TLM Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Talisman prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See TLM Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of TLM stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See TLM Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Talisman Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See TLM Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Talisman prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of TLM.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward TLM. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of TLM prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Talisman in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See TLM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for TLM. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See TLM Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Talisman gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See TLM Final Results . |
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