| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, February 19, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 06, 2010:
As of Friday, March 05, 2010, the closing price has been up for 3 days in a row. The price of TRV rose by 2.56 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It seems to be rising, coming from 101.59% to 101.64% in the past month. There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week. From the Update 3/10/2010 : The candle on 3/10/2010 is a Star medium body. This is after a stepped up medium bodyon the preceeding session. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, February 19, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Travelers Companies, Inc. historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See TRV Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See TRV Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See TRV Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of The Travelers Companies, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See TRV Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of The Travelers Companies, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in TRV stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of TRV.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward TRV. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of TRV prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of The Travelers Companies, Inc. historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the TRV historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See TRV Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for The Travelers Companies, Inc. speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See TRV Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for The Travelers Companies, Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See TRV Final Results . |
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