| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Tuesday, November 09, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of TSO by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See TSO Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See TSO Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of TSO stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See TSO Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See TSO Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Tesoro Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in TSO stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of TSO.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of TSO stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward TSO. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of TSO prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Tesoro Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the TSO historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to TSO over the next few months? See TSO Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for TSO. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See TSO Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Tesoro Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See TSO Final Results . |
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