| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 20, 2010:
As of Friday, March 19, 2010, the closing price has been up for 3 days in a row. Volume and Price increased together for UTX this week. Although it is better than last week, the RSI level is still a bit unfavorable. The conventional RSI is almost unchanged from the previous week. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.61% to 100.65% in the past month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/19/2010 : The candle for3/19/2010 was a Star medium body coming after the prior day's stepped down long day. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of UTX:
Chapter 1:
This look at United Technologies begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See UTX Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See UTX Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of UTX stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See UTX Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See UTX Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of United Technologies prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to UTX historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of UTX.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of UTX stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward UTX. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the UTX historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See UTX Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for UTX. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See UTX Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for United Technologies gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See UTX Final Results . |
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