| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Monday, December 29, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 27, 2008:
It is generally thought to be bad news when both price and volume decline, which is exactly what happened to WB this week, but sometimes this situation can be a buying opportunity. The situation is not bad enough to trigger a sell signal, but the Wilder RSI is showing a yellow light, and the situation has gotten worse over the last week. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. This indicator is down over the last month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 12/31/2008 : The latest trading day is represented as a Shadowed short body Hammer, coming on the heels of a stepped up long day on Tuesday. A shadowed session is one with an open-to-close range that is completely within the bounds of the previous day's open-to-close range. This indicates a lack of direction in the market for this issue. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Monday, December 29, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of WB:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Wachovia Corporation, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See WB Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See WB Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See WB Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Wachovia Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See WB Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Wachovia Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of WB.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Wachovia Corporation show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of WB prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Wachovia Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the WB historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to WB over the next few months? See WB Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for WB. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See WB Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Wachovia Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See WB Final Results . |
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