| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Tuesday, March 09, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for XOM. XOM seems fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, and the position is moving to the bullish. There is a favorable category change from last week's close. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. It seems to be rising, coming from 101.95% to 101.96% in the past month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/17/2010 : The recent session is represented as a Star medium body, following the Shadowed Doji on Tuesday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was flagged on Tuesday, March 09, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: XOM Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of XOM by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See XOM Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See XOM Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See XOM Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See XOM Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Exxon Mobil prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in XOM stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of XOM.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of XOM stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward XOM. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the XOM historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See XOM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Exxon Mobil speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See XOM Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Exxon Mobil gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See XOM Final Results . |
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