Acergy S.A. Trading Strategy

Trading Strategy Analysis of ACGY

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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for ACGY

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	68.20 %		0.21	1201.00
Buy On Rise Hold	93.98 %		0.20	1274.50
Buy On Dip Hold	124.73 %		0.19	1330.48
Signal and Hold	82.19 %		0.15	1653.26
Stops Only	60.33 %	-0.46	1.00	498.04	60.33 %	-0.46	30.83 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	61.97 %	-0.18	3.00	78.39	61.97 %	-0.18	40.85 %
Buy Signals	107.14 %	-0.46	0.00	531.18	107.14 %	-0.46	30.13 %
All Methods	89.97 %	-0.18	4.00	64.75	89.97 %	-0.18	55.60 %

This table shows the results some simple trading policies from brute-force calculations on every trading day during the last 10 years. The concept of stops does not apply to the top few entries, which are various flavors of the well known Buy and Hold strategy. This much used strategy yielded 68.00 %.

The naïve interpretation of the Buy and Hold strategy is tested by buying on every day of the period, and evaluating the value of the accumulated holdings at the end. Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold.

Generally, we have found the Buy-On-Dip policy to offer better returns than the Buy-On-Rise. That is true in this case, indicating some of the benefit of betting against the crowd when investing. Both strategies offer improvement over the unadorned Buy and Hold. Using technical indicators to buy and then hold, improves on the simple Buy and Hold strategy, but is still not the best.

The worst defect of the various Buy and Hold strategies is that they do not offer a methodology for cutting losses.

From the Report Dated 11/5/2010: For purposes of setting stop loss limits, the best setting is -46 percent when the stops for ACGY are reset weekly. This setting has produced a historical yield of 60.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).

How to set sliding stop limits for Acergy S.A.:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Acergy S.A.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Sentiment

Back to ACGY Table of Contents

Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
4/18/2001	7/3/2001	12.48	10.83	-1.65	-1.65	1	51
4/26/2001	7/3/2001	13.24	10.83	-2.41	-4.06	1	45
5/16/2001	7/3/2001	13.48	10.83	-2.65	-6.71	1	33
5/23/2001	7/3/2001	13.69	10.83	-2.86	-9.57	1	28
5/31/2001	7/3/2001	13.86	10.83	-3.03	-12.60	1	23
6/25/2001	7/12/2001	12.65	10.36	-2.29	-14.89	1	12
7/6/2001	8/28/2001	10.98	8.18	-2.80	-17.69	1	37
7/13/2001	8/28/2001	10.73	8.18	-2.55	-20.24	1	32
7/17/2001	8/28/2001	10.31	8.18	-2.13	-22.37	1	30
8/28/2001	9/19/2001	8.18	7.24	-0.94	-23.31	1	11
9/19/2001	11/28/2001	7.24	6.31	-0.93	-24.24	1	49
10/9/2001	11/28/2001	6.93	6.31	-0.62	-24.86	1	35
10/22/2001	11/28/2001	6.90	6.31	-0.59	-25.45	1	26
11/1/2001	11/30/2001	7.09	5.82	-1.27	-26.72	1	20
12/12/2001	1/17/2002	6.54	6.62	0.08	-26.64	1	24
12/19/2001	1/17/2002	7.28	6.62	-0.66	-27.30	1	19
1/10/2002	1/17/2002	8.13	6.62	-1.51	-28.81	1	5
1/17/2002	6/7/2002	6.62	7.02	0.40	-28.41	1	96
1/24/2002	6/7/2002	6.46	7.02	0.56	-27.85	1	92
2/11/2002	6/7/2002	6.67	7.02	0.35	-27.50	1	81
3/1/2002	6/7/2002	6.55	7.02	0.47	-27.03	1	68
3/18/2002	6/7/2002	6.81	7.02	0.21	-26.82	1	57
3/25/2002	6/7/2002	7.47	7.02	-0.45	-27.27	1	52
4/2/2002	6/7/2002	8.03	7.02	-1.01	-28.28	1	47
5/16/2002	6/13/2002	7.90	6.15	-1.75	-30.03	1	19
5/28/2002	6/13/2002	7.68	6.15	-1.53	-31.56	1	12
6/13/2002	8/13/2002	6.15	5.32	-0.83	-32.39	1	42
6/14/2002	8/13/2002	6.08	5.32	-0.76	-33.15	1	41
6/20/2002	8/13/2002	6.09	5.32	-0.77	-33.92	1	37
6/26/2002	8/13/2002	5.80	5.32	-0.48	-34.40	1	33
8/9/2002	8/30/2002	5.64	4.50	-1.14	-35.54	1	15
8/13/2002	9/3/2002	5.32	4.14	-1.18	-36.72	1	14
8/15/2002	9/3/2002	5.20	4.14	-1.06	-37.78	1	12
8/20/2002	9/5/2002	4.93	4.04	-0.89	-38.67	1	11
8/27/2002	9/16/2002	4.92	3.96	-0.96	-39.63	1	13
9/12/2002	9/26/2002	4.16	2.67	-1.49	-41.12	1	10
9/26/2002	9/30/2002	2.67	2.08	-0.59	-41.71	1	2
10/21/2002	10/29/2002	1.77	1.43	-0.34	-42.05	1	6
11/1/2002	11/5/2002	1.51	1.23	-0.28	-42.33	1	2
11/12/2002	12/3/2002	1.11	1.49	0.38	-41.95	1	14
11/21/2002	12/3/2002	1.37	1.49	0.12	-41.83	1	7
12/2/2002	12/9/2002	1.72	1.32	-0.40	-42.23	1	5
12/6/2002	12/10/2002	1.52	1.18	-0.34	-42.57	1	2
12/23/2002	2/4/2003	1.31	1.30	-0.01	-42.58	1	28
1/21/2003	2/4/2003	1.49	1.30	-0.19	-42.77	1	10
1/29/2003	2/10/2003	1.42	1.19	-0.23	-43.00	1	8
3/5/2003	6/2/2003	1.13	1.25	0.12	-42.88	1	61
3/14/2003	6/2/2003	1.13	1.25	0.12	-42.76	1	54
4/1/2003	6/2/2003	1.13	1.25	0.12	-42.64	1	42
4/11/2003	6/2/2003	1.39	1.25	-0.14	-42.78	1	34
4/23/2003	6/2/2003	1.44	1.25	-0.19	-42.97	1	27
4/30/2003	6/2/2003	1.64	1.25	-0.39	-43.36	1	22
5/9/2003	6/2/2003	1.87	1.25	-0.62	-43.98	1	15
6/2/2003	9/18/2003	1.25	1.81	0.56	-43.42	1	76
6/3/2003	9/18/2003	1.26	1.81	0.55	-42.87	1	75
6/10/2003	9/18/2003	1.61	1.81	0.20	-42.67	1	70
7/28/2003	9/18/2003	1.96	1.81	-0.15	-42.82	1	37
8/14/2003	9/18/2003	2.20	1.81	-0.39	-43.21	1	24
9/15/2003	9/18/2003	2.49	1.81	-0.68	-43.89	1	3
9/17/2003	9/19/2003	2.11	1.69	-0.42	-44.31	1	2
10/15/2003	3/22/2004	1.66	2.75	1.09	-43.22	1	108
10/31/2003	3/22/2004	1.78	2.75	0.97	-42.25	1	96
11/13/2003	3/22/2004	1.85	2.75	0.90	-41.35	1	87
12/4/2003	3/22/2004	2.18	2.75	0.57	-40.78	1	73
12/19/2003	3/22/2004	2.31	2.75	0.44	-40.34	1	62
12/29/2003	3/22/2004	2.33	2.75	0.42	-39.92	1	57
3/31/2004	5/10/2004	2.83	2.13	-0.70	-40.62	1	27
5/10/2004	10/6/2005	2.13	9.94	7.81	-32.81	1	356
5/21/2004	10/6/2005	2.18	9.94	7.76	-25.05	1	347
5/26/2004	10/6/2005	2.39	9.94	7.55	-17.50	1	344
7/13/2004	10/6/2005	3.01	9.94	6.93	-10.57	1	313
8/19/2004	10/6/2005	3.70	9.94	6.24	-4.33	1	286
8/27/2004	10/6/2005	3.65	9.94	6.29	1.96	1	280
10/13/2004	10/6/2005	4.78	9.94	5.16	7.12	1	248
11/17/2004	10/6/2005	4.35	9.94	5.59	12.71	1	223
11/29/2004	10/6/2005	5.30	9.94	4.64	17.35	1	216
1/7/2005	10/6/2005	5.67	9.94	4.27	21.62	1	188
1/14/2005	10/6/2005	6.54	9.94	3.40	25.02	1	183
5/12/2005	10/6/2005	6.81	9.94	3.13	28.15	1	102
9/5/2006	9/25/2006	18.06	14.75	-3.31	24.84	1	14
11/16/2006	11/15/2007	18.35	22.97	4.62	29.46	1	250
12/7/2006	11/15/2007	18.79	22.97	4.18	33.64	1	236
1/24/2007	11/15/2007	18.30	22.97	4.67	38.31	1	206
3/8/2007	11/15/2007	17.96	22.97	5.01	43.32	1	176
11/19/2007	1/16/2008	21.52	18.22	-3.30	40.02	1	39
11/29/2007	1/17/2008	21.72	17.85	-3.87	36.15	1	33
12/5/2007	1/17/2008	19.84	17.85	-1.99	34.16	1	29
1/11/2008	1/23/2008	20.41	16.60	-3.81	30.35	1	7
6/25/2008	7/10/2008	21.78	17.62	-4.16	26.19	1	10
7/2/2008	7/15/2008	20.35	16.19	-4.16	22.03	1	8
9/2/2008	9/9/2008	14.88	11.78	-3.10	18.93	1	5
1/9/2009	1/20/2009	5.62	4.59	-1.03	17.90	1	6
2/11/2009	2/20/2009	6.32	5.03	-1.29	16.61	1	6
7/15/2009	5/7/2010	10.63	15.91	5.28	21.89	1	205
10/26/2009	5/7/2010	13.06	15.91	2.85	24.74	1	133
1/11/2010	5/7/2010	16.69	15.91	-0.78	23.96	1	81
1/13/2010	5/7/2010	16.28	15.91	-0.37	23.59	1	79
4/14/2010	5/7/2010	19.49	15.91	-3.58	20.01	1	17
6/9/2010	11/5/2010	13.85	22.46	8.61	28.62	0	105
7/16/2010	11/5/2010	14.86	22.46	7.60	36.22	0	79
9/3/2010	11/5/2010	16.97	22.46	5.49	41.71	0	44
9/15/2010	11/5/2010	17.14	22.46	5.32	47.03	0	37

Total Session Units Invested 7259
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 3.03

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	102 at $5.00	41 at $15.00	$3,578.00
100	102 at $30.00	41 at $30.00	$413.00
1000	102 at $5.00	41 at $15.00	$45,904.99
1000	102 at $30.00	41 at $30.00	$42,739.99

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