How to set sliding stop limits for AstroPower:Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee. Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.
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Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.
The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.
These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily. | Independent Analysis of AstroPower: |
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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for APWR | Best Return | at Stop | Episodes | Length | Best +10 | at Stop | -5 to -25 | | Buy and Hold | -30.35 % | | 0.34 | 735.00 | | | | | Buy On Rise Hold | -31.46 % | | 0.37 | 686.11 | | | | | Buy On Dip Hold | -35.03 % | | 0.42 | 599.69 | | | | | Signal and Hold | -25.17 % | | 0.29 | 870.50 | | | | | Stops Only | 51.68 % | -0.40 | 1.62 | 154.90 | 51.68 % | -0.40 | -0.86 % | | Sell Signal Trim Stops | 3.63 % | -0.01 | 72.48 | 3.46 | -12.22 % | -0.12 | -32.11 % | | Buy Signals | 233.17 % | -0.02 | 46.95 | 5.35 | 106.98 % | -0.33 | 74.47 % | | All Methods | 252.58 % | -0.02 | 53.49 | 4.69 | 97.76 % | -0.12 | 67.02 % |
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Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-lossTrailing stops set at -18.00 %
| Start | End | Buy In | End Price | Dif | Total | Type | Sessions | | 3/11/1998 | 6/11/1998 | 6.08 | 5.50 | -0.58 | -0.58 | 1 | 63 | | 4/2/1998 | 6/11/1998 | 5.92 | 5.50 | -0.42 | -1.00 | 1 | 47 | | 4/22/1998 | 6/11/1998 | 6.50 | 5.50 | -1.00 | -2.00 | 1 | 34 | | 6/3/1998 | 8/17/1998 | 5.83 | 5.00 | -0.83 | -2.83 | 1 | 52 | | 6/23/1998 | 8/17/1998 | 5.54 | 5.00 | -0.54 | -3.37 | 1 | 38 | | 6/29/1998 | 8/17/1998 | 5.50 | 5.00 | -0.50 | -3.87 | 1 | 34 | | 7/16/1998 | 8/17/1998 | 5.96 | 5.00 | -0.96 | -4.83 | 1 | 22 | | 7/28/1998 | 8/19/1998 | 5.92 | 4.67 | -1.25 | -6.08 | 1 | 16 | | 8/5/1998 | 8/20/1998 | 5.33 | 4.33 | -1.00 | -7.08 | 1 | 11 | | 8/14/1998 | 10/5/1998 | 5.25 | 4.29 | -0.96 | -8.04 | 1 | 35 | | 8/31/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 4.42 | 6.62 | 2.20 | -5.84 | 1 | 122 | | 9/24/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 4.75 | 6.62 | 1.87 | -3.97 | 1 | 105 | | 10/8/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 4.04 | 6.62 | 2.58 | -1.39 | 1 | 95 | | 10/26/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 4.96 | 6.62 | 1.66 | 0.27 | 1 | 83 | | 11/4/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 6.25 | 6.62 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 1 | 76 | | 11/9/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 5.58 | 6.62 | 1.04 | 1.68 | 1 | 73 | | 11/23/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 6.00 | 6.62 | 0.62 | 2.30 | 1 | 63 | | 11/25/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 5.58 | 6.62 | 1.04 | 3.34 | 1 | 61 | | 12/22/1998 | 2/25/1999 | 6.17 | 6.62 | 0.45 | 3.79 | 1 | 43 | | 1/6/1999 | 2/25/1999 | 5.92 | 6.62 | 0.70 | 4.49 | 1 | 34 | | 1/13/1999 | 2/25/1999 | 7.50 | 6.62 | -0.88 | 3.61 | 1 | 29 | | 1/20/1999 | 2/25/1999 | 7.92 | 6.62 | -1.30 | 2.31 | 1 | 25 | | 2/11/1999 | 3/2/1999 | 8.04 | 6.50 | -1.54 | 0.77 | 1 | 12 | | 3/5/1999 | 5/5/1999 | 7.08 | 8.58 | 1.50 | 2.27 | 1 | 42 | | 3/18/1999 | 5/5/1999 | 7.25 | 8.58 | 1.33 | 3.60 | 1 | 33 | | 4/9/1999 | 5/5/1999 | 7.96 | 8.58 | 0.62 | 4.22 | 1 | 18 | | 4/16/1999 | 5/5/1999 | 8.50 | 8.58 | 0.08 | 4.30 | 1 | 13 | | 5/26/1999 | 8/2/1999 | 8.67 | 8.58 | -0.09 | 4.21 | 1 | 46 | | 6/3/1999 | 8/2/1999 | 9.42 | 8.58 | -0.84 | 3.37 | 1 | 41 | | 7/13/1999 | 8/2/1999 | 11.08 | 8.58 | -2.50 | 0.87 | 1 | 14 | | 7/27/1999 | 9/24/1999 | 9.83 | 7.92 | -1.91 | -1.04 | 1 | 42 | | 8/23/1999 | 9/22/1999 | 10.00 | 8.17 | -1.83 | -2.87 | 1 | 21 | | 9/1/1999 | 9/24/1999 | 9.75 | 7.92 | -1.83 | -4.70 | 1 | 16 | | 10/11/1999 | 3/15/2000 | 9.17 | 20.83 | 11.66 | 6.96 | 1 | 106 | | 10/13/1999 | 3/15/2000 | 8.08 | 20.83 | 12.75 | 19.71 | 1 | 104 | | 10/29/1999 | 3/15/2000 | 8.62 | 20.83 | 12.21 | 31.92 | 1 | 92 | | 11/11/1999 | 3/15/2000 | 7.67 | 20.83 | 13.16 | 45.08 | 1 | 83 | | 12/2/1999 | 3/15/2000 | 8.25 | 20.83 | 12.58 | 57.66 | 1 | 69 | | 1/24/2000 | 2/10/2000 | 16.75 | 13.08 | -3.67 | 53.99 | 1 | 13 | | 3/28/2000 | 4/3/2000 | 25.25 | 18.83 | -6.42 | 47.57 | 1 | 4 | | 5/1/2000 | 5/22/2000 | 13.92 | 11.00 | -2.92 | 44.65 | 1 | 15 | | 5/26/2000 | 7/17/2000 | 10.04 | 16.75 | 6.71 | 51.36 | 1 | 32 | | 6/21/2000 | 7/17/2000 | 19.21 | 16.75 | -2.46 | 48.90 | 1 | 17 | | 7/11/2000 | 7/26/2000 | 17.33 | 12.33 | -5.00 | 43.90 | 1 | 10 | | 7/26/2000 | 9/27/2000 | 12.33 | 25.00 | 12.67 | 56.57 | 1 | 42 | | 8/16/2000 | 9/27/2000 | 16.79 | 25.00 | 8.21 | 64.78 | 1 | 27 | | 9/12/2000 | 9/27/2000 | 24.75 | 25.00 | 0.25 | 65.03 | 1 | 11 | | 10/13/2000 | 11/2/2000 | 32.83 | 27.92 | -4.91 | 60.12 | 1 | 14 | | 10/23/2000 | 11/2/2000 | 33.83 | 27.92 | -5.91 | 54.21 | 1 | 8 | | 11/1/2000 | 11/9/2000 | 31.25 | 25.58 | -5.67 | 48.54 | 1 | 6 | | 12/19/2000 | 12/20/2000 | 20.46 | 15.08 | -5.38 | 43.16 | 1 | 1 | | 12/28/2000 | 1/30/2001 | 22.62 | 22.83 | 0.21 | 43.37 | 1 | 21 | | 1/30/2001 | 3/12/2001 | 22.83 | 23.08 | 0.25 | 43.62 | 1 | 28 | | 3/16/2001 | 6/14/2001 | 20.04 | 29.00 | 8.96 | 52.58 | 1 | 62 | | 3/26/2001 | 6/14/2001 | 22.21 | 29.00 | 6.79 | 59.37 | 1 | 56 | | 5/30/2001 | 6/18/2001 | 32.53 | 27.82 | -4.71 | 54.66 | 1 | 13 | | 8/2/2001 | 8/17/2001 | 26.33 | 21.87 | -4.46 | 50.20 | 1 | 11 | | 8/17/2001 | 11/9/2001 | 21.87 | 22.70 | 0.83 | 51.03 | 1 | 55 | | 8/23/2001 | 11/9/2001 | 22.83 | 22.70 | -0.13 | 50.90 | 1 | 51 | | 11/9/2001 | 2/21/2002 | 22.70 | 22.03 | -0.67 | 50.23 | 1 | 68 | | 4/22/2002 | 6/21/2002 | 25.33 | 19.63 | -5.70 | 44.53 | 1 | 43 | | 5/7/2002 | 6/24/2002 | 21.63 | 18.20 | -3.43 | 41.10 | 1 | 33 | | 6/21/2002 | 7/19/2002 | 19.63 | 15.81 | -3.82 | 37.28 | 1 | 19 | | 7/15/2002 | 8/2/2002 | 16.54 | 7.77 | -8.77 | 28.51 | 1 | 14 | | 8/2/2002 | 9/19/2002 | 7.77 | 7.31 | -0.46 | 28.05 | 1 | 33 | | 8/19/2002 | 9/19/2002 | 7.80 | 7.31 | -0.49 | 27.56 | 1 | 22 | | 11/5/2002 | 1/14/2003 | 6.61 | 7.11 | 0.50 | 28.06 | 1 | 47 | | 12/20/2002 | 2/5/2003 | 7.42 | 6.33 | -1.09 | 26.97 | 1 | 30 | | 3/4/2003 | 3/31/2003 | 5.20 | 4.18 | -1.02 | 25.95 | 1 | 19 | | 3/10/2003 | 3/31/2003 | 4.44 | 4.18 | -0.26 | 25.69 | 1 | 15 | | 4/22/2003 | 5/22/2003 | 2.21 | 3.10 | 0.89 | 26.58 | 1 | 22 | | 7/24/2003 | 7/25/2003 | 1.61 | 1.15 | -0.46 | 26.12 | 1 | 1 | | 8/13/2003 | 10/2/2003 | 1.40 | 1.44 | 0.04 | 26.16 | 1 | 35 | | 8/28/2003 | 10/2/2003 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 0.02 | 26.18 | 1 | 24 | | 9/12/2003 | 10/2/2003 | 1.75 | 1.44 | -0.31 | 25.87 | 1 | 14 | | 9/26/2003 | 10/2/2003 | 1.80 | 1.44 | -0.36 | 25.51 | 1 | 4 | | 12/17/2003 | 12/31/2003 | 0.53 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 25.63 | 0 | 9 | | 12/29/2003 | 12/31/2003 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 25.71 | 0 | 2 |
Total Session Units Invested 2864
Sessions In Time Span 1466 Avg. Units Invested 1.95
| Unit Shares | Market Order Commissions | Stop Order Commissions | Profit | | 100 | 78 at $5.00 | 41 at $15.00 | $1,566.00 | | 100 | 78 at $30.00 | 41 at $30.00 | ($999.00) | | 1000 | 78 at $5.00 | 41 at $15.00 | $24,705.00 | | 1000 | 78 at $30.00 | 41 at $30.00 | $22,140.00 | |
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