Trading Strategy Analysis of ENDP

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for ENDP

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	21.40 %		0.21	1201.00
Buy On Rise Hold	25.71 %		0.17	1498.09
Buy On Dip Hold	32.53 %		0.15	1721.58
Signal and Hold	27.06 %		0.16	1570.70
Stops Only	43.33 %	-0.03	20.00	12.30	-4.02 %	-0.40	-7.23 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	41.07 %	-0.06	11.00	23.08	7.95 %	-0.11	0.04 %
Buy Signals	20.51 %	-0.06	11.00	21.87	-0.10 %	-0.40	-7.29 %
All Methods	18.50 %	-0.03	35.00	7.14	11.84 %	-0.12	0.04 %

These figures represent the annualized yields from several strategies for ENDP, conducted mechanically for 10 years. The top lines of the table show results from several variations on the classic Buy and Hold strategy, for which the concept of stops does not apply. This much used strategy yielded 21.00 %.

Buy and Hold strategy in the most simple form is exercised by buying on every day of the test period, and holding the issue to the end . Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold.

Generally, we have found the Buy-On-Dip policy to offer better returns than the Buy-On-Rise. That is true in this case, indicating some of the benefit of betting against the crowd when investing. Both strategies offer improvement over the unadorned Buy and Hold. Using technical indicators to buy and then hold, improves on the simple Buy and Hold strategy, but is still not the best.

All the buy and hold strategies suffer from a dangerous defect, as they do not cut losses. The statistics underestimate the harm of this defect, because market statistics are based on companies that survive. Doctors bury their mistakes, but Exchanges de-list them.

From the Report Dated 11/5/2010: -3 % has been the best sliding stop-loss setting for ENDP in the past. This assumes the stops are adjusted on the week-end. However, setting stops this close can result in excess transactions. The best stop wider than 10 percent is -40 percent. This has historically produced a yield during holding periods that annualizes to -4.00 %.

How to set sliding stop limits for Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Back to ENDP Table of Contents

Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
5/4/2001	6/15/2001	6.72	9.12	2.40	2.40	1	29
5/24/2001	6/15/2001	10.12	9.12	-1.00	1.40	1	15
6/29/2001	10/10/2001	8.84	9.05	0.21	1.61	1	66
7/16/2001	10/10/2001	11.35	9.05	-2.30	-0.69	1	56
7/31/2001	10/10/2001	10.00	9.05	-0.95	-1.64	1	46
8/3/2001	10/10/2001	9.85	9.05	-0.80	-2.44	1	43
8/9/2001	10/10/2001	9.45	9.05	-0.40	-2.84	1	39
8/10/2001	10/10/2001	9.60	9.05	-0.55	-3.39	1	38
8/27/2001	10/10/2001	11.25	9.05	-2.20	-5.59	1	27
9/28/2001	10/16/2001	10.85	8.90	-1.95	-7.54	1	12
10/9/2001	10/19/2001	9.34	7.55	-1.79	-9.33	1	8
10/10/2001	1/29/2002	9.05	9.02	-0.03	-9.36	1	75
10/18/2001	1/29/2002	7.71	9.02	1.31	-8.05	1	69
10/22/2001	1/29/2002	7.70	9.02	1.32	-6.73	1	67
10/23/2001	1/29/2002	8.15	9.02	0.87	-5.86	1	66
11/6/2001	1/29/2002	9.05	9.02	-0.03	-5.89	1	56
11/13/2001	1/29/2002	9.55	9.02	-0.53	-6.42	1	51
12/12/2001	1/29/2002	10.99	9.02	-1.97	-8.39	1	31
12/27/2001	1/29/2002	11.70	9.02	-2.68	-11.07	1	21
1/17/2002	6/4/2002	10.56	10.21	-0.35	-11.42	1	93
2/7/2002	6/4/2002	9.80	10.21	0.41	-11.01	1	80
3/14/2002	6/4/2002	10.59	10.21	-0.38	-11.39	1	56
4/10/2002	6/4/2002	9.92	10.21	0.29	-11.10	1	38
4/25/2002	6/4/2002	10.80	10.21	-0.59	-11.69	1	27
6/11/2002	6/24/2002	10.26	5.69	-4.57	-16.26	1	9
6/24/2002	10/28/2002	5.69	6.82	1.13	-15.13	1	88
6/26/2002	10/28/2002	6.77	6.82	0.05	-15.08	1	86
6/27/2002	10/28/2002	6.90	6.82	-0.08	-15.16	1	85
7/25/2002	10/28/2002	7.51	6.82	-0.69	-15.85	1	66
8/21/2002	10/28/2002	9.00	6.82	-2.18	-18.03	1	47
10/8/2002	10/28/2002	8.67	6.82	-1.85	-19.88	1	14
10/18/2002	10/28/2002	9.01	6.82	-2.19	-22.07	1	6
11/12/2002	12/19/2002	6.44	7.00	0.56	-21.51	1	26
1/15/2003	7/21/2003	9.98	14.89	4.91	-16.60	1	128
3/25/2003	7/21/2003	12.52	14.89	2.37	-14.23	1	81
4/24/2003	7/21/2003	16.85	14.89	-1.96	-16.19	1	60
5/19/2003	7/21/2003	15.48	14.89	-0.59	-16.78	1	43
7/2/2003	10/20/2003	15.51	15.19	-0.32	-17.10	1	76
10/20/2003	5/19/2004	15.19	21.23	6.04	-11.06	1	146
12/29/2003	5/19/2004	19.35	21.23	1.88	-9.18	1	98
1/5/2004	5/19/2004	23.63	21.23	-2.40	-11.58	1	94
3/24/2004	5/19/2004	22.68	21.23	-1.45	-13.03	1	39
5/14/2004	7/26/2004	23.70	19.41	-4.29	-17.32	1	48
7/7/2004	8/4/2004	22.05	17.11	-4.94	-22.26	1	20
7/29/2004	10/20/2005	19.24	24.75	5.51	-16.75	1	311
8/4/2004	10/20/2005	17.11	24.75	7.64	-9.11	1	307
12/10/2004	10/20/2005	19.97	24.75	4.78	-4.33	1	217
2/28/2005	10/20/2005	22.53	24.75	2.22	-2.11	1	164
5/17/2005	10/20/2005	20.07	24.75	4.68	2.57	1	109
6/7/2005	10/20/2005	24.63	24.75	0.12	2.69	1	95
9/27/2005	2/2/2006	28.39	25.39	-3.00	-0.31	1	88
10/6/2005	2/2/2006	26.04	25.39	-0.65	-0.96	1	81
2/1/2006	11/2/2006	26.72	28.05	1.33	0.37	1	191
6/8/2006	11/2/2006	28.75	28.05	-0.70	-0.33	1	103
6/23/2006	11/2/2006	31.50	28.05	-3.45	-3.78	1	92
10/18/2006	10/8/2007	29.41	28.30	-1.11	-4.89	1	243
10/31/2006	10/8/2007	28.54	28.30	-0.24	-5.13	1	234
11/3/2006	10/8/2007	28.12	28.30	0.18	-4.95	1	231
3/15/2007	10/8/2007	28.39	28.30	-0.09	-5.04	1	143
5/31/2007	10/8/2007	35.26	28.30	-6.96	-12.00	1	90
10/1/2007	1/22/2008	30.35	24.56	-5.79	-17.79	1	77
10/2/2007	1/22/2008	30.38	24.56	-5.82	-23.61	1	76
10/4/2007	3/10/2008	29.01	23.72	-5.29	-28.90	1	107
10/24/2007	3/13/2008	28.23	23.48	-4.75	-33.65	1	96
4/10/2008	9/9/2008	26.28	21.29	-4.99	-38.64	1	105
9/9/2008	10/8/2008	21.29	16.33	-4.96	-43.60	1	21
2/2/2009	2/27/2009	22.44	18.98	-3.46	-47.06	1	18
2/27/2009	12/9/2009	18.98	19.51	0.53	-46.53	1	198
3/5/2009	12/9/2009	17.10	19.51	2.41	-44.12	1	194
11/30/2009	11/5/2010	22.03	35.89	13.86	-30.26	0	236
12/3/2009	11/5/2010	21.26	35.89	14.63	-15.63	0	233
1/19/2010	11/5/2010	20.38	35.89	15.51	-0.12	0	203
2/5/2010	11/5/2010	19.57	35.89	16.32	16.20	0	190
2/22/2010	11/5/2010	21.41	35.89	14.48	30.68	0	180
5/20/2010	11/5/2010	20.66	35.89	15.23	45.91	0	118
10/12/2010	11/5/2010	34.99	35.89	0.90	46.81	0	18

Total Session Units Invested 7138
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 2.98

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	76 at $5.00	26 at $15.00	$3,911.00
100	76 at $30.00	26 at $30.00	$1,621.00
1000	76 at $5.00	26 at $15.00	$46,039.99
1000	76 at $30.00	26 at $30.00	$43,749.99

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.

Detailed Trading Strategy for ENDP :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.