Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for ESLT | Best Return | at Stop | Episodes | Length | Best +10 | at Stop | -5 to -25 | | Buy and Hold | 25.90 % | | 0.21 | 1201.00 | | | | | Buy On Rise Hold | 23.07 % | | 0.22 | 1135.70 | | | | | Buy On Dip Hold | 21.54 % | | 0.32 | 782.31 | | | | | Signal and Hold | 28.97 % | | 0.19 | 1354.72 | | | | | Stops Only | 33.24 % | -0.23 | 0.00 | 751.27 | 33.24 % | -0.23 | 22.69 % | | Sell Signal Trim Stops | 29.40 % | -0.45 | 0.00 | 795.29 | 29.40 % | -0.45 | 15.05 % | | Buy Signals | 36.06 % | -0.23 | 0.00 | 895.91 | 36.06 % | -0.23 | 26.93 % | | All Methods | 34.49 % | -0.16 | 1.00 | 176.63 | 34.49 % | -0.16 | 21.15 % |
This table shows the results some simple trading policies from brute-force calculations on every trading day during the last 10 years. The concept of stops does not apply to the top few entries, which are various flavors of the well known Buy and Hold strategy. This much used strategy yielded 26.00 %. The most basic flavor of the Buy and Hold strategy is tested by buying on every day of the period, then holding all the way to the present date. Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold. Our tests show it is generally better to buy on the dips rather than trying to follow the momentum of the market. But ESLT is an exception to that rule. Sadly, neither of these policies were able to match the unadorned Buy and Hold in this somewhat unusual case. The best of these strategies trigger the buy on technical indicators. All the buy and hold strategies suffer from a dangerous defect, as they do not cut losses. The statistics underestimate the harm of this defect, because market statistics are based on companies that survive. Doctors bury their mistakes, but Exchanges de-list them.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
How to set sliding stop limits for Elbit Systems Ltd.:Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee. Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years. The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.
These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily. | 
Subscribe More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Elbit Systems Ltd.: |
| |
| |
| |
|
| |
|
|
Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-lossTrailing stops set at -18.00 %
| Start | End | Buy In | End Price | Dif | Total | Type | Sessions | | 7/12/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 12.16 | 11.62 | -0.54 | -0.54 | 1 | 217 | | 7/19/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 12.73 | 11.62 | -1.11 | -1.65 | 1 | 212 | | 8/21/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 12.88 | 11.62 | -1.26 | -2.91 | 1 | 189 | | 9/4/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 12.21 | 11.62 | -0.59 | -3.50 | 1 | 180 | | 9/10/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 11.95 | 11.62 | -0.33 | -3.83 | 1 | 176 | | 9/21/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 12.42 | 11.62 | -0.80 | -4.63 | 1 | 171 | | 10/5/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 14.42 | 11.62 | -2.80 | -7.43 | 1 | 161 | | 10/26/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 14.23 | 11.62 | -2.61 | -10.04 | 1 | 146 | | 11/5/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 14.33 | 11.62 | -2.71 | -12.75 | 1 | 140 | | 11/16/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 13.42 | 11.62 | -1.80 | -14.55 | 1 | 131 | | 12/3/2001 | 5/29/2002 | 13.84 | 11.62 | -2.22 | -16.77 | 1 | 121 | | 12/17/2001 | 5/28/2002 | 14.58 | 11.91 | -2.67 | -19.44 | 1 | 110 | | 1/2/2002 | 5/29/2002 | 14.11 | 11.62 | -2.49 | -21.93 | 1 | 101 | | 1/28/2002 | 5/29/2002 | 13.34 | 11.62 | -1.72 | -23.65 | 1 | 84 | | 2/20/2002 | 5/30/2002 | 14.15 | 11.56 | -2.59 | -26.24 | 1 | 69 | | 4/22/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 13.17 | 12.81 | -0.36 | -26.60 | 1 | 397 | | 4/24/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.69 | 12.81 | 0.12 | -26.48 | 1 | 395 | | 5/8/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.63 | 12.81 | 0.18 | -26.30 | 1 | 385 | | 5/29/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 11.62 | 12.81 | 1.19 | -25.11 | 1 | 371 | | 7/3/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.32 | 12.81 | 0.49 | -24.62 | 1 | 346 | | 7/31/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.20 | 12.81 | 0.61 | -24.01 | 1 | 327 | | 9/9/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 13.12 | 12.81 | -0.31 | -24.32 | 1 | 300 | | 9/18/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.61 | 12.81 | 0.20 | -24.12 | 1 | 293 | | 10/11/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 11.79 | 12.81 | 1.02 | -23.10 | 1 | 276 | | 10/15/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 11.79 | 12.81 | 1.02 | -22.08 | 1 | 274 | | 10/28/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.08 | 12.81 | 0.73 | -21.35 | 1 | 265 | | 11/25/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.91 | 12.81 | -0.10 | -21.45 | 1 | 245 | | 11/27/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.84 | 12.81 | -0.03 | -21.48 | 1 | 243 | | 12/9/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.99 | 12.81 | -0.18 | -21.66 | 1 | 236 | | 12/19/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.77 | 12.81 | 0.04 | -21.62 | 1 | 228 | | 12/26/2002 | 11/14/2003 | 12.71 | 12.81 | 0.10 | -21.52 | 1 | 224 | | 1/13/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 12.45 | 12.81 | 0.36 | -21.16 | 1 | 213 | | 1/21/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 11.99 | 12.81 | 0.82 | -20.34 | 1 | 208 | | 1/23/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 11.98 | 12.81 | 0.83 | -19.51 | 1 | 206 | | 2/24/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 11.72 | 12.81 | 1.09 | -18.42 | 1 | 185 | | 3/6/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 12.07 | 12.81 | 0.74 | -17.68 | 1 | 177 | | 3/21/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 13.01 | 12.81 | -0.20 | -17.88 | 1 | 166 | | 4/1/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 13.11 | 12.81 | -0.30 | -18.18 | 1 | 159 | | 4/17/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 14.34 | 12.81 | -1.53 | -19.71 | 1 | 147 | | 4/28/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 13.67 | 12.81 | -0.86 | -20.57 | 1 | 141 | | 5/12/2003 | 11/14/2003 | 15.13 | 12.81 | -2.32 | -22.89 | 1 | 131 | | 7/8/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 14.64 | 12.09 | -2.55 | -25.44 | 1 | 110 | | 8/20/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 13.60 | 12.09 | -1.51 | -26.95 | 1 | 79 | | 9/8/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 14.09 | 12.09 | -2.00 | -28.95 | 1 | 67 | | 9/22/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 13.80 | 12.09 | -1.71 | -30.66 | 1 | 57 | | 10/20/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 13.98 | 12.09 | -1.89 | -32.55 | 1 | 37 | | 10/29/2003 | 12/11/2003 | 14.42 | 12.09 | -2.33 | -34.88 | 1 | 30 | | 11/11/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 13.38 | 18.73 | 5.35 | -29.53 | 1 | 494 | | 11/24/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 12.99 | 18.73 | 5.74 | -23.79 | 1 | 485 | | 11/25/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 12.72 | 18.73 | 6.01 | -17.78 | 1 | 484 | | 12/11/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 12.09 | 18.73 | 6.64 | -11.14 | 1 | 473 | | 12/15/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 12.84 | 18.73 | 5.89 | -5.25 | 1 | 471 | | 12/29/2003 | 10/27/2005 | 13.94 | 18.73 | 4.79 | -0.46 | 1 | 462 | | 1/20/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 15.79 | 18.73 | 2.94 | 2.48 | 1 | 448 | | 3/30/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 14.32 | 18.73 | 4.41 | 6.89 | 1 | 399 | | 4/8/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 15.02 | 18.73 | 3.71 | 10.60 | 1 | 392 | | 5/4/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 15.22 | 18.73 | 3.51 | 14.11 | 1 | 375 | | 5/21/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 14.60 | 18.73 | 4.13 | 18.24 | 1 | 362 | | 6/14/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 15.32 | 18.73 | 3.41 | 21.65 | 1 | 348 | | 7/8/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 17.27 | 18.73 | 1.46 | 23.11 | 1 | 331 | | 8/9/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 16.58 | 18.73 | 2.15 | 25.26 | 1 | 309 | | 8/25/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 17.20 | 18.73 | 1.53 | 26.79 | 1 | 297 | | 9/2/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 15.78 | 18.73 | 2.95 | 29.74 | 1 | 291 | | 9/22/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 17.76 | 18.73 | 0.97 | 30.71 | 1 | 278 | | 10/1/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 17.85 | 18.73 | 0.88 | 31.59 | 1 | 271 | | 11/15/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 18.98 | 18.73 | -0.25 | 31.34 | 1 | 240 | | 11/29/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 19.99 | 18.73 | -1.26 | 30.08 | 1 | 231 | | 12/3/2004 | 10/27/2005 | 19.88 | 18.73 | -1.15 | 28.93 | 1 | 227 | | 1/31/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 21.75 | 48.54 | 26.79 | 55.72 | 1 | 810 | | 2/28/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 21.94 | 48.54 | 26.60 | 82.32 | 1 | 791 | | 3/7/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 22.12 | 48.54 | 26.42 | 108.74 | 1 | 786 | | 4/27/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 21.83 | 48.54 | 26.71 | 135.45 | 1 | 750 | | 6/16/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 19.60 | 48.54 | 28.94 | 164.39 | 1 | 715 | | 6/30/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 19.60 | 48.54 | 28.94 | 193.33 | 1 | 705 | | 7/14/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.39 | 48.54 | 28.15 | 221.48 | 1 | 696 | | 9/19/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.53 | 48.54 | 28.01 | 249.49 | 1 | 650 | | 9/20/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.29 | 48.54 | 28.25 | 277.74 | 1 | 649 | | 9/26/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.10 | 48.54 | 28.44 | 306.18 | 1 | 645 | | 10/14/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 19.68 | 48.54 | 28.86 | 335.04 | 1 | 631 | | 10/27/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 18.73 | 48.54 | 29.81 | 364.85 | 1 | 622 | | 11/2/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.95 | 48.54 | 27.59 | 392.44 | 1 | 618 | | 11/14/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 20.62 | 48.54 | 27.92 | 420.36 | 1 | 610 | | 12/12/2005 | 4/21/2008 | 21.97 | 48.54 | 26.57 | 446.93 | 1 | 591 | | 2/7/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 22.90 | 48.54 | 25.64 | 472.57 | 1 | 553 | | 3/3/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 20.93 | 48.54 | 27.61 | 500.18 | 1 | 536 | | 3/27/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 22.38 | 48.54 | 26.16 | 526.34 | 1 | 520 | | 5/1/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 23.85 | 48.54 | 24.69 | 551.03 | 1 | 496 | | 5/24/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 23.78 | 48.54 | 24.76 | 575.79 | 1 | 479 | | 5/30/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 24.23 | 48.54 | 24.31 | 600.10 | 1 | 476 | | 7/5/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 24.20 | 48.54 | 24.34 | 624.44 | 1 | 451 | | 7/10/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 24.78 | 48.54 | 23.76 | 648.20 | 1 | 448 | | 7/12/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 23.36 | 48.54 | 25.18 | 673.38 | 1 | 446 | | 8/7/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 24.55 | 48.54 | 23.99 | 697.37 | 1 | 428 | | 8/21/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 26.61 | 48.54 | 21.93 | 719.30 | 1 | 418 | | 9/11/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 25.49 | 48.54 | 23.05 | 742.35 | 1 | 404 | | 9/20/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 27.65 | 48.54 | 20.89 | 763.24 | 1 | 397 | | 9/27/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 27.78 | 48.54 | 20.76 | 784.00 | 1 | 392 | | 10/9/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 27.61 | 48.54 | 20.93 | 804.93 | 1 | 384 | | 12/4/2006 | 4/21/2008 | 30.28 | 48.54 | 18.26 | 823.19 | 1 | 345 | | 1/3/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 31.76 | 48.54 | 16.78 | 839.97 | 1 | 326 | | 1/22/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 30.92 | 48.54 | 17.62 | 857.59 | 1 | 314 | | 2/20/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 31.48 | 48.54 | 17.06 | 874.65 | 1 | 294 | | 3/5/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 30.09 | 48.54 | 18.45 | 893.10 | 1 | 285 | | 3/27/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 32.77 | 48.54 | 15.77 | 908.87 | 1 | 269 | | 4/17/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 37.42 | 48.54 | 11.12 | 919.99 | 1 | 255 | | 8/23/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 41.03 | 48.54 | 7.51 | 927.50 | 1 | 165 | | 9/18/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 43.47 | 48.54 | 5.07 | 932.57 | 1 | 148 | | 12/17/2007 | 4/21/2008 | 50.09 | 48.54 | -1.55 | 931.02 | 1 | 85 | | 1/22/2008 | 4/21/2008 | 55.14 | 48.54 | -6.60 | 924.42 | 1 | 62 | | 3/10/2008 | 9/17/2008 | 49.20 | 43.58 | -5.62 | 918.80 | 1 | 133 | | 5/20/2008 | 9/17/2008 | 54.64 | 43.58 | -11.06 | 907.74 | 1 | 83 | | 7/30/2008 | 9/17/2008 | 50.73 | 43.58 | -7.15 | 900.59 | 1 | 34 | | 12/29/2008 | 5/20/2010 | 41.19 | 53.89 | 12.70 | 913.29 | 1 | 350 | | 1/12/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 44.57 | 53.89 | 9.32 | 922.61 | 1 | 341 | | 1/28/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 44.59 | 53.89 | 9.30 | 931.91 | 1 | 330 | | 2/2/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 40.94 | 53.89 | 12.95 | 944.86 | 1 | 327 | | 3/16/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 43.26 | 53.89 | 10.63 | 955.49 | 1 | 298 | | 4/30/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 47.48 | 53.89 | 6.41 | 961.90 | 1 | 266 | | 5/26/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 56.62 | 53.89 | -2.73 | 959.17 | 1 | 249 | | 6/15/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 55.61 | 53.89 | -1.72 | 957.45 | 1 | 235 | | 6/23/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 56.75 | 53.89 | -2.86 | 954.59 | 1 | 229 | | 6/30/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 60.00 | 53.89 | -6.11 | 948.48 | 1 | 224 | | 7/7/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 56.10 | 53.89 | -2.21 | 946.27 | 1 | 220 | | 7/15/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 62.12 | 53.89 | -8.23 | 938.04 | 1 | 214 | | 9/14/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 59.97 | 53.89 | -6.08 | 931.96 | 1 | 172 | | 10/12/2009 | 5/20/2010 | 66.27 | 53.89 | -12.38 | 919.58 | 1 | 152 | | 10/28/2009 | 5/24/2010 | 59.29 | 52.89 | -6.40 | 913.18 | 1 | 142 | | 11/9/2009 | 5/24/2010 | 61.00 | 52.89 | -8.11 | 905.07 | 1 | 134 | | 12/15/2009 | 5/24/2010 | 60.26 | 52.89 | -7.37 | 897.70 | 1 | 109 | | 2/25/2010 | 5/25/2010 | 60.78 | 51.82 | -8.96 | 888.74 | 1 | 62 | | 3/4/2010 | 5/25/2010 | 59.33 | 51.82 | -7.51 | 881.23 | 1 | 57 | | 5/4/2010 | 6/1/2010 | 59.27 | 48.60 | -10.67 | 870.56 | 1 | 19 | | 5/5/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 58.28 | 49.37 | -8.91 | 861.65 | 0 | 135 | | 5/26/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 49.25 | 49.37 | 0.12 | 861.77 | 0 | 120 | | 6/21/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 51.24 | 49.37 | -1.87 | 859.90 | 0 | 103 | | 8/16/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 52.41 | 49.37 | -3.04 | 856.86 | 0 | 64 | | 10/12/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 54.47 | 49.37 | -5.10 | 851.76 | 0 | 24 | | 10/18/2010 | 11/15/2010 | 53.51 | 49.37 | -4.14 | 847.62 | 0 | 20 |
Total Session Units Invested 41285
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 17.22
| Unit Shares | Market Order Commissions | Stop Order Commissions | Profit | | 100 | 138 at $5.00 | 14 at $15.00 | $83,862.00 | | 100 | 138 at $30.00 | 14 at $30.00 | $80,202.00 | | 1000 | 138 at $5.00 | 14 at $15.00 | $846,720.03 | | 1000 | 138 at $30.00 | 14 at $30.00 | $843,060.03 | |
Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page
For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Elbit Systems Ltd.
Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.
Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.
Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money.
These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.ComThis site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
| |
