Hansen Natural Corporation Trading Strategy

HANS Stop Loss Techniques

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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for HANS

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	625.31 %		0.21	1201.00
Buy On Rise Hold	507.12 %		0.20	1255.42
Buy On Dip Hold	593.64 %		0.20	1261.84
Signal and Hold	905.56 %		0.15	1622.92
Stops Only	948.62 %	-0.34	1.00	452.85	948.62 %	-0.34	97.20 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	789.98 %	-0.46	1.00	498.24	789.98 %	-0.46	87.44 %
Buy Signals	1,258.86 %	-0.34	0.00	675.61	1,258.86 %	-0.34	132.09 %
All Methods	1,108.11 %	-0.46	0.00	705.54	1,108.11 %	-0.46	124.45 %

These figures represent the annualized yields from several strategies for HANS, conducted mechanically for 10 years. The concept of stops does not apply to the top few entries, which are various flavors of the well known Buy and Hold strategy. This much used strategy yielded 625.00 %.

The most basic flavor of the Buy and Hold strategy is tested by buying on every day of the period, then holding all the way to the present date. Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold.

Generally, we have found the Buy-On-Dip policy to offer better returns than the Buy-On-Rise. That is true in this case, indicating some of the benefit of betting against the crowd when investing. Sadly, neither of these policies were able to match the unadorned Buy and Hold in this somewhat unusual case. The best of these strategies trigger the buy on technical indicators.

The worst defect of the various Buy and Hold strategies is that they do not offer a methodology for cutting losses.

From the Report Dated 11/8/2010: -34 % has been the best sliding stop-loss setting for HANS in the past. This assumes the stops are adjusted on the week-end. This setting has produced a historical yield of 949.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).

How to set sliding stop limits for Hansen Natural Corporation:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Hansen Natural Corporation:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Sentiment

Back to HANS Table of Contents

Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
5/4/2001	9/26/2001	0.38	0.40	0.02	0.02	1	96
5/8/2001	9/26/2001	0.37	0.40	0.03	0.05	1	94
5/21/2001	9/26/2001	0.39	0.40	0.01	0.06	1	85
7/5/2001	9/26/2001	0.45	0.40	-0.05	0.01	1	54
7/11/2001	9/26/2001	0.47	0.40	-0.07	-0.06	1	50
8/9/2001	9/26/2001	0.49	0.40	-0.09	-0.15	1	29
8/17/2001	9/26/2001	0.50	0.40	-0.10	-0.25	1	23
8/31/2001	9/26/2001	0.49	0.40	-0.09	-0.34	1	13
9/19/2001	7/22/2002	0.42	0.44	0.02	-0.32	1	209
9/26/2001	7/22/2002	0.40	0.44	0.04	-0.28	1	204
10/4/2001	7/22/2002	0.41	0.44	0.03	-0.25	1	198
10/22/2001	7/22/2002	0.47	0.44	-0.03	-0.28	1	186
12/17/2001	7/22/2002	0.52	0.44	-0.08	-0.36	1	147
12/20/2001	7/22/2002	0.52	0.44	-0.08	-0.44	1	144
2/8/2002	7/24/2002	0.52	0.42	-0.10	-0.54	1	114
2/20/2002	7/24/2002	0.52	0.42	-0.10	-0.64	1	107
3/19/2002	7/24/2002	0.50	0.42	-0.08	-0.72	1	88
3/26/2002	7/24/2002	0.52	0.42	-0.10	-0.82	1	83
4/29/2002	7/24/2002	0.52	0.42	-0.10	-0.92	1	60
5/9/2002	7/24/2002	0.49	0.42	-0.07	-0.99	1	52
5/17/2002	7/24/2002	0.51	0.42	-0.09	-1.08	1	46
5/28/2002	7/24/2002	0.52	0.42	-0.10	-1.18	1	40
7/2/2002	7/25/2002	0.51	0.41	-0.10	-1.28	1	16
7/22/2002	2/12/2003	0.44	0.43	-0.01	-1.29	1	142
8/15/2002	2/12/2003	0.50	0.43	-0.07	-1.36	1	124
8/19/2002	2/12/2003	0.50	0.43	-0.07	-1.43	1	122
8/26/2002	2/12/2003	0.50	0.43	-0.07	-1.50	1	117
8/30/2002	2/12/2003	0.51	0.43	-0.08	-1.58	1	113
10/2/2002	2/12/2003	0.49	0.43	-0.06	-1.64	1	91
10/15/2002	2/12/2003	0.51	0.43	-0.08	-1.72	1	82
11/4/2002	2/12/2003	0.54	0.43	-0.11	-1.83	1	68
11/20/2002	2/12/2003	0.52	0.43	-0.09	-1.92	1	56
12/12/2002	2/12/2003	0.53	0.43	-0.10	-2.02	1	41
12/17/2002	2/12/2003	0.53	0.43	-0.10	-2.12	1	38
1/8/2003	2/12/2003	0.54	0.43	-0.11	-2.23	1	24
1/14/2003	2/12/2003	0.54	0.43	-0.11	-2.34	1	20
2/12/2003	3/22/2004	0.43	1.41	0.98	-1.36	1	278
2/19/2003	3/22/2004	0.47	1.41	0.94	-0.42	1	274
2/20/2003	3/22/2004	0.47	1.41	0.94	0.52	1	273
3/28/2003	3/22/2004	0.53	1.41	0.88	1.40	1	247
4/7/2003	3/22/2004	0.50	1.41	0.91	2.31	1	241
4/24/2003	3/22/2004	0.49	1.41	0.92	3.23	1	229
5/6/2003	3/22/2004	0.51	1.41	0.90	4.13	1	221
5/16/2003	3/22/2004	0.53	1.41	0.88	5.01	1	213
5/28/2003	3/22/2004	0.53	1.41	0.88	5.89	1	206
6/6/2003	3/22/2004	0.53	1.41	0.88	6.77	1	199
6/16/2003	3/22/2004	0.52	1.41	0.89	7.66	1	193
6/24/2003	3/22/2004	0.54	1.41	0.87	8.53	1	187
7/2/2003	3/22/2004	0.54	1.41	0.87	9.40	1	181
7/7/2003	3/22/2004	0.54	1.41	0.87	10.27	1	179
7/16/2003	3/22/2004	0.72	1.41	0.69	10.96	1	172
7/28/2003	3/22/2004	0.64	1.41	0.77	11.73	1	164
8/5/2003	3/22/2004	0.65	1.41	0.76	12.49	1	158
8/8/2003	3/22/2004	0.61	1.41	0.80	13.29	1	155
8/12/2003	3/22/2004	0.65	1.41	0.76	14.05	1	153
8/14/2003	3/22/2004	0.75	1.41	0.66	14.71	1	151
9/12/2003	3/22/2004	0.71	1.41	0.70	15.41	1	131
9/22/2003	3/22/2004	0.68	1.41	0.73	16.14	1	125
10/8/2003	3/22/2004	0.76	1.41	0.65	16.79	1	113
11/7/2003	3/22/2004	0.89	1.41	0.52	17.31	1	91
11/13/2003	3/22/2004	1.11	1.41	0.30	17.61	1	87
12/1/2003	3/22/2004	1.10	1.41	0.31	17.92	1	76
12/11/2003	3/22/2004	1.09	1.41	0.32	18.24	1	68
12/29/2003	3/22/2004	1.05	1.41	0.36	18.60	1	57
1/7/2004	3/22/2004	1.03	1.41	0.38	18.98	1	51
1/14/2004	3/22/2004	1.01	1.41	0.40	19.38	1	46
2/2/2004	3/22/2004	1.24	1.41	0.17	19.55	1	34
3/22/2004	7/8/2004	1.41	2.78	1.37	20.92	1	74
4/29/2004	7/8/2004	1.69	2.78	1.09	22.01	1	47
5/6/2004	7/8/2004	2.00	2.78	0.78	22.79	1	42
7/6/2004	7/13/2004	2.88	2.35	-0.53	22.26	1	5
7/16/2004	9/21/2004	2.57	2.83	0.26	22.52	1	46
8/5/2004	9/21/2004	2.94	2.83	-0.11	22.41	1	32
9/1/2004	9/21/2004	3.39	2.83	-0.56	21.85	1	13
9/13/2004	9/22/2005	3.19	10.12	6.93	28.78	1	260
11/4/2004	9/22/2005	3.24	10.12	6.88	35.66	1	222
2/8/2005	9/22/2005	5.00	10.12	5.12	40.78	1	157
3/14/2005	9/22/2005	6.82	10.12	3.30	44.08	1	134
3/24/2005	9/22/2005	7.49	10.12	2.63	46.71	1	126
5/31/2005	9/22/2005	9.32	10.12	0.80	47.51	1	80
6/24/2005	9/22/2005	10.12	10.12	0.00	47.51	1	62
11/2/2005	2/6/2006	14.53	20.15	5.62	53.13	1	64
11/9/2005	2/6/2006	16.05	20.15	4.10	57.23	1	59
11/28/2005	2/6/2006	19.17	20.15	0.98	58.21	1	47
1/13/2006	2/6/2006	26.08	20.15	-5.93	52.28	1	15
2/6/2006	6/13/2006	20.15	37.49	17.34	69.62	1	88
3/9/2006	6/13/2006	24.56	37.49	12.93	82.55	1	66
8/7/2006	11/7/2006	29.85	27.26	-2.59	79.96	1	65
8/30/2006	11/7/2006	28.66	27.26	-1.40	78.56	1	48
10/26/2006	11/7/2006	33.48	27.26	-6.22	72.34	1	8
11/6/2006	11/8/2007	27.86	43.50	15.64	87.98	1	253
12/5/2006	11/8/2007	31.27	43.50	12.23	100.21	1	233
3/14/2007	11/8/2007	35.05	43.50	8.45	108.66	1	167
5/7/2007	11/8/2007	40.42	43.50	3.08	111.74	1	130
6/15/2007	11/8/2007	43.90	43.50	-0.40	111.34	1	102
8/8/2007	11/8/2007	46.92	43.50	-3.42	107.92	1	65
11/8/2007	1/16/2008	43.50	40.00	-3.50	104.42	1	46
12/5/2007	1/16/2008	45.96	40.00	-5.96	98.46	1	28
1/8/2008	3/28/2008	42.77	34.67	-8.10	90.36	1	55
1/30/2008	3/28/2008	37.21	34.67	-2.54	87.82	1	40
5/8/2008	7/1/2008	30.14	28.10	-2.04	85.78	1	37
7/31/2008	9/8/2008	22.86	23.90	1.04	86.82	1	26
8/14/2008	9/8/2008	29.98	23.90	-6.08	80.74	1	16
6/5/2009	11/8/2010	32.36	50.97	18.61	99.35	0	360
6/29/2009	11/8/2010	31.15	50.97	19.82	119.17	0	344
11/12/2009	11/8/2010	34.31	50.97	16.66	135.83	0	248
12/18/2009	11/8/2010	37.00	50.97	13.97	149.80	0	223
4/29/2010	11/8/2010	44.41	50.97	6.56	156.36	0	134
5/7/2010	11/8/2010	37.35	50.97	13.62	169.98	0	128
6/8/2010	11/8/2010	37.96	50.97	13.01	182.99	0	107

Total Session Units Invested 12631
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 5.27

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	110 at $5.00	19 at $15.00	$17,464.00
100	110 at $30.00	19 at $30.00	$14,429.00
1000	110 at $5.00	19 at $15.00	$182,155.01
1000	110 at $30.00	19 at $30.00	$179,120.01

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