Joy Global Inc. Trading Strategy

Trading Strategy Analysis of JOYG

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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for JOYG

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	93.10 %		0.21	1181.50
Buy On Rise Hold	91.58 %		0.25	1010.14
Buy On Dip Hold	95.71 %		0.32	777.51
Signal and Hold	123.30 %		0.14	1735.52
Stops Only	188.69 %	-0.21	1.00	218.01	188.69 %	-0.21	95.30 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	180.26 %	-0.24	1.00	218.85	180.26 %	-0.24	88.71 %
Buy Signals	218.78 %	-0.21	1.00	288.17	218.78 %	-0.21	108.07 %
All Methods	221.21 %	-0.24	1.00	275.63	221.21 %	-0.24	108.11 %

This table shows the results some simple trading policies from brute-force calculations on every trading day during the last 9 years. The concept of stops does not apply to the top few entries, which are various flavors of the well known Buy and Hold strategy. This much used strategy yielded 93.00 %.

The most basic flavor of the Buy and Hold strategy is tested by buying on every day of the period, then holding all the way to the present date. A less simplistic version might involve the momentum investor's ploy of buying only on rising prices, or the more contrarian tactic of buying on the dips.

Generally, we have found the Buy-On-Dip policy to offer better returns than the Buy-On-Rise. That is true in this case, indicating some of the benefit of betting against the crowd when investing. The best of these strategies trigger the buy on technical indicators.

Strategies lacking a stop-loss policy are too dangerous, given that every stock, sooner or later, will become worthless.

From the Report Dated 11/4/2010: At least from the standpoint of a single company strategy, the best setting over the past 10 years has been -21 percent for JOYG when adjusting stops weekly. This setting has produced a historical yield of 189.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).

How to set sliding stop limits for Joy Global Inc.:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Joy Global Inc.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Risk-Volatility

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Seasonal Trends

Back to JOYG Table of Contents

Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
7/12/2001	9/19/2001	6.77	6.07	-0.70	-0.70	1	44
7/27/2001	9/19/2001	6.54	6.07	-0.47	-1.17	1	33
8/2/2001	9/19/2001	6.94	6.07	-0.87	-2.04	1	29
8/30/2001	9/19/2001	7.26	6.07	-1.19	-3.23	1	9
9/28/2001	2/28/2002	6.00	5.70	-0.30	-3.53	1	104
10/17/2001	2/28/2002	6.49	5.70	-0.79	-4.32	1	91
11/26/2001	2/28/2002	6.20	5.70	-0.50	-4.82	1	64
11/30/2001	2/28/2002	6.27	5.70	-0.57	-5.39	1	60
12/10/2001	2/28/2002	6.51	5.70	-0.81	-6.20	1	54
12/17/2001	2/28/2002	6.13	5.70	-0.43	-6.63	1	49
2/5/2002	7/19/2002	6.55	4.85	-1.70	-8.33	1	114
2/28/2002	7/19/2002	5.70	4.85	-0.85	-9.18	1	98
3/18/2002	7/19/2002	6.45	4.85	-1.60	-10.78	1	86
4/5/2002	7/19/2002	6.29	4.85	-1.44	-12.22	1	73
4/12/2002	7/19/2002	6.39	4.85	-1.54	-13.76	1	68
6/17/2002	7/19/2002	6.54	4.85	-1.69	-15.45	1	23
6/28/2002	7/19/2002	7.01	4.85	-2.16	-17.61	1	14
7/12/2002	9/4/2002	5.86	4.80	-1.06	-18.67	1	37
7/19/2002	9/5/2002	4.85	4.51	-0.34	-19.01	1	33
8/21/2002	9/13/2002	5.42	4.41	-1.01	-20.02	1	16
9/4/2002	9/19/2002	4.80	3.92	-0.88	-20.90	1	11
9/23/2002	3/4/2003	3.82	4.06	0.24	-20.66	1	111
10/4/2002	3/4/2003	3.22	4.06	0.84	-19.82	1	102
11/27/2002	3/4/2003	4.81	4.06	-0.75	-20.57	1	64
2/28/2003	4/14/2005	4.12	19.10	14.98	-5.59	1	535
3/12/2003	4/14/2005	4.26	19.10	14.84	9.25	1	527
3/20/2003	4/14/2005	4.75	19.10	14.35	23.60	1	521
5/22/2003	4/14/2005	5.03	19.10	14.07	37.67	1	477
6/11/2003	4/14/2005	6.44	19.10	12.66	50.33	1	464
7/7/2003	4/14/2005	6.02	19.10	13.08	63.41	1	447
8/28/2003	4/14/2005	6.49	19.10	12.61	76.02	1	409
10/1/2003	4/14/2005	7.01	19.10	12.09	88.11	1	386
10/28/2003	4/14/2005	7.50	19.10	11.60	99.71	1	367
12/11/2003	4/14/2005	9.02	19.10	10.08	109.79	1	336
12/19/2003	4/14/2005	10.42	19.10	8.68	118.47	1	330
12/29/2003	4/14/2005	10.21	19.10	8.89	127.36	1	325
4/1/2004	4/14/2005	11.69	19.10	7.41	134.77	1	260
11/29/2004	4/14/2005	16.48	19.10	2.62	137.39	1	94
1/27/2005	4/14/2005	16.64	19.10	2.46	139.85	1	53
3/29/2005	5/16/2006	20.14	54.11	33.97	173.82	1	286
1/3/2006	5/16/2006	40.50	54.11	13.61	187.43	1	92
4/27/2006	5/18/2006	58.80	49.76	-9.04	178.39	1	15
5/25/2006	7/12/2006	46.09	40.09	-6.00	172.39	1	32
7/18/2006	9/20/2006	35.75	32.63	-3.12	169.27	1	45
8/31/2006	9/20/2006	40.71	32.63	-8.08	161.19	1	13
1/3/2007	2/28/2007	42.87	41.70	-1.17	160.02	1	38
3/28/2007	7/25/2007	40.19	49.63	9.44	169.46	1	82
8/20/2007	1/17/2008	41.59	51.01	9.42	178.88	1	104
8/27/2008	9/3/2008	68.12	50.85	-17.27	161.61	1	4
9/2/2008	9/3/2008	62.85	50.85	-12.00	149.61	1	1
3/12/2009	6/22/2009	20.19	32.35	12.16	161.77	1	70
5/28/2010	11/4/2010	50.66	74.24	23.58	185.35	0	111

Total Session Units Invested 7811
Sessions In Time Span 2359 Avg. Units Invested 3.31

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	52 at $5.00	19 at $15.00	$17,990.00
100	52 at $30.00	19 at $30.00	$16,405.00
1000	52 at $5.00	19 at $15.00	$184,805.00
1000	52 at $30.00	19 at $30.00	$183,220.00

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