Trading Strategy Analysis of MKTAY

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for MKTAY

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	37.95 %		0.21	1201.00
Buy On Rise Hold	36.73 %		0.23	1076.09
Buy On Dip Hold	36.59 %		0.39	646.04
Signal and Hold	30.61 %		0.23	1092.77
Stops Only	68.72 %	-0.24	0.00	631.89	68.72 %	-0.24	46.57 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	63.96 %	-0.44	0.00	631.19	63.96 %	-0.44	25.84 %
Buy Signals	62.18 %	-0.14	1.00	242.15	62.18 %	-0.14	43.99 %
All Methods	57.91 %	-0.35	1.00	416.61	57.91 %	-0.35	29.14 %

The table above summarizes the results of the full range of stop-loss settings for MKTAY when applied to several different mechanical trading strategies over every trading session during the past 10 years. These results for sliding stop strategies are obtained by resetting the stop loss after the weekly closing. The top lines of the table show results from several variations on the classic Buy and Hold strategy, for which the concept of stops does not apply. This much used strategy yielded 38.00 %.

Buy and Hold strategy in the most simple form is exercised by buying on every day of the test period, and holding the issue to the end . A less simplistic version might involve the momentum investor's ploy of buying only on rising prices, or the more contrarian tactic of buying on the dips.

Our tests show it is generally better to buy on the dips rather than trying to follow the momentum of the market. But MKTAY is an exception to that rule. Sadly, neither of these policies were able to match the unadorned Buy and Hold in this somewhat unusual case. Some stocks just do not seem to respond in a normal way to the usual technical signals. Here a signaled buy and hold offers no improvement at all!

All the buy and hold strategies suffer from a dangerous defect, as they do not cut losses. The statistics underestimate the harm of this defect, because market statistics are based on companies that survive. Doctors bury their mistakes, but Exchanges de-list them.

From the Report Dated 11/8/2010: At least from the standpoint of a single company strategy, the best setting over the past 10 years has been -24 percent for MKTAY when adjusting stops weekly. This setting has produced a historical yield of 69.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).

How to set sliding stop limits for Makita Corp.:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Makita Corp.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Seasonal Trends

Back to MKTAY Table of Contents

Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
5/18/2001	1/9/2002	5.76	4.69	-1.07	-1.07	1	158
6/18/2001	2/7/2002	5.38	4.53	-0.85	-1.92	1	158
8/29/2001	2/7/2002	5.56	4.53	-1.03	-2.95	1	107
12/18/2001	9/23/2002	5.08	5.32	0.24	-2.71	1	191
2/6/2002	9/23/2002	4.79	5.32	0.53	-2.18	1	158
3/21/2002	9/23/2002	6.05	5.32	-0.73	-2.91	1	128
7/15/2002	9/23/2002	6.49	5.32	-1.17	-4.08	1	49
7/19/2002	10/3/2002	6.45	5.27	-1.18	-5.26	1	53
8/8/2002	6/12/2006	5.57	26.88	21.31	16.05	1	967
8/21/2002	6/12/2006	5.75	26.88	21.13	37.18	1	958
9/10/2002	6/12/2006	5.51	26.88	21.37	58.55	1	945
12/31/2002	6/12/2006	6.86	26.88	20.02	78.57	1	867
1/24/2003	6/12/2006	6.59	26.88	20.29	98.86	1	851
1/29/2003	6/12/2006	6.49	26.88	20.39	119.25	1	848
2/27/2003	6/12/2006	6.33	26.88	20.55	139.80	1	828
3/6/2003	6/12/2006	6.52	26.88	20.36	160.16	1	823
3/25/2003	6/12/2006	6.58	26.88	20.30	180.46	1	810
4/4/2003	6/12/2006	7.31	26.88	19.57	200.03	1	802
5/13/2003	6/12/2006	7.42	26.88	19.46	219.49	1	776
5/29/2003	6/12/2006	7.08	26.88	19.80	239.29	1	765
6/17/2003	6/12/2006	7.84	26.88	19.04	258.33	1	752
6/26/2003	6/12/2006	7.73	26.88	19.15	277.48	1	745
7/3/2003	6/12/2006	7.47	26.88	19.41	296.89	1	740
7/11/2003	6/12/2006	7.37	26.88	19.51	316.40	1	735
7/24/2003	6/12/2006	7.80	26.88	19.08	335.48	1	726
8/4/2003	6/12/2006	8.33	26.88	18.55	354.03	1	719
9/5/2003	6/12/2006	8.80	26.88	18.08	372.11	1	696
9/12/2003	6/12/2006	8.50	26.88	18.38	390.49	1	691
10/10/2003	6/12/2006	8.70	26.88	18.18	408.67	1	671
10/20/2003	6/12/2006	8.91	26.88	17.97	426.64	1	665
10/22/2003	6/12/2006	9.08	26.88	17.80	444.44	1	663
10/28/2003	6/12/2006	8.96	26.88	17.92	462.36	1	659
11/3/2003	6/12/2006	9.55	26.88	17.33	479.69	1	655
11/11/2003	6/12/2006	9.40	26.88	17.48	497.17	1	649
11/18/2003	6/12/2006	8.74	26.88	18.14	515.31	1	644
11/25/2003	6/12/2006	8.96	26.88	17.92	533.23	1	639
12/3/2003	6/12/2006	9.24	26.88	17.64	550.87	1	634
12/17/2003	6/12/2006	9.18	26.88	17.70	568.57	1	624
1/5/2004	6/12/2006	10.07	26.88	16.81	585.38	1	613
1/13/2004	6/12/2006	9.89	26.88	16.99	602.37	1	607
1/21/2004	6/12/2006	9.84	26.88	17.04	619.41	1	602
2/4/2004	6/12/2006	10.58	26.88	16.30	635.71	1	592
3/29/2004	6/12/2006	12.13	26.88	14.75	650.46	1	555
5/28/2004	6/12/2006	13.72	26.88	13.16	663.62	1	512
6/3/2004	6/12/2006	13.33	26.88	13.55	677.17	1	509
6/9/2004	6/12/2006	13.89	26.88	12.99	690.16	1	505
6/18/2004	6/12/2006	14.16	26.88	12.72	702.88	1	499
7/13/2004	6/12/2006	14.85	26.88	12.03	714.91	1	483
7/21/2004	6/12/2006	14.44	26.88	12.44	727.35	1	477
8/12/2004	6/12/2006	14.12	26.88	12.76	740.11	1	461
8/17/2004	6/12/2006	14.11	26.88	12.77	752.88	1	458
9/15/2004	6/12/2006	13.99	26.88	12.89	765.77	1	438
9/21/2004	6/12/2006	13.99	26.88	12.89	778.66	1	434
10/6/2004	6/12/2006	13.23	26.88	13.65	792.31	1	423
10/12/2004	6/12/2006	13.40	26.88	13.48	805.79	1	419
10/19/2004	6/12/2006	13.40	26.88	13.48	819.27	1	414
12/9/2004	6/12/2006	14.99	26.88	11.89	831.16	1	378
12/28/2004	6/12/2006	16.89	26.88	9.99	841.15	1	366
1/4/2005	6/12/2006	16.79	26.88	10.09	851.24	1	361
1/19/2005	6/12/2006	16.87	26.88	10.01	861.25	1	351
1/26/2005	6/12/2006	16.76	26.88	10.12	871.37	1	346
2/2/2005	6/12/2006	18.33	26.88	8.55	879.92	1	341
2/9/2005	6/12/2006	17.77	26.88	9.11	889.03	1	336
2/22/2005	6/12/2006	18.37	26.88	8.51	897.54	1	328
3/4/2005	6/12/2006	19.19	26.88	7.69	905.23	1	320
4/13/2005	6/12/2006	18.00	26.88	8.88	914.11	1	293
4/27/2005	6/12/2006	17.20	26.88	9.68	923.79	1	283
5/2/2005	6/12/2006	18.29	26.88	8.59	932.38	1	280
5/9/2005	6/12/2006	18.87	26.88	8.01	940.39	1	275
5/18/2005	6/12/2006	19.21	26.88	7.67	948.06	1	268
5/20/2005	6/12/2006	18.94	26.88	7.94	956.00	1	266
5/25/2005	6/12/2006	19.10	26.88	7.78	963.78	1	263
6/1/2005	6/12/2006	19.36	26.88	7.52	971.30	1	259
6/8/2005	6/12/2006	20.20	26.88	6.68	977.98	1	254
7/8/2005	6/12/2006	19.21	26.88	7.67	985.65	1	233
7/20/2005	6/12/2006	19.92	26.88	6.96	992.61	1	225
8/3/2005	6/12/2006	21.22	26.88	5.66	998.27	1	215
9/26/2005	6/12/2006	18.91	26.88	7.97	1006.24	1	178
10/3/2005	6/12/2006	19.51	26.88	7.37	1013.61	1	173
11/4/2005	6/12/2006	24.43	26.88	2.45	1016.06	1	149
11/17/2005	6/12/2006	24.38	26.88	2.50	1018.56	1	140
12/2/2005	6/12/2006	24.59	26.88	2.29	1020.85	1	130
12/8/2005	6/12/2006	22.90	26.88	3.98	1024.83	1	126
12/23/2005	6/12/2006	24.93	26.88	1.95	1026.78	1	115
1/20/2006	6/12/2006	25.07	26.88	1.81	1028.59	1	98
2/1/2006	6/12/2006	29.55	26.88	-2.67	1025.92	1	90
2/6/2006	6/12/2006	29.07	26.88	-2.19	1023.73	1	87
2/22/2006	6/12/2006	28.40	26.88	-1.52	1022.21	1	76
3/3/2006	6/12/2006	27.97	26.88	-1.09	1021.12	1	69
3/14/2006	6/12/2006	29.31	26.88	-2.43	1018.69	1	62
4/27/2006	6/12/2006	29.40	26.88	-2.52	1016.17	1	31
5/9/2006	6/12/2006	32.04	26.88	-5.16	1011.01	1	23
5/15/2006	6/13/2006	32.74	26.05	-6.69	1004.32	1	20
5/23/2006	8/17/2007	29.85	37.17	7.32	1011.64	1	311
5/25/2006	8/17/2007	30.45	37.17	6.72	1018.36	1	309
8/9/2006	8/17/2007	31.38	37.17	5.79	1024.15	1	257
8/29/2006	8/17/2007	29.71	37.17	7.46	1031.61	1	243
9/20/2006	8/17/2007	28.35	37.17	8.82	1040.43	1	228
9/25/2006	8/17/2007	28.49	37.17	8.68	1049.11	1	225
10/26/2006	8/17/2007	30.47	37.17	6.70	1055.81	1	202
11/6/2006	8/17/2007	29.49	37.17	7.68	1063.49	1	195
11/10/2006	8/17/2007	27.58	37.17	9.59	1073.08	1	191
12/13/2006	8/17/2007	28.90	37.17	8.27	1081.35	1	169
12/22/2006	8/17/2007	29.58	37.17	7.59	1088.94	1	162
12/28/2006	8/17/2007	30.50	37.17	6.67	1095.61	1	159
1/18/2007	8/17/2007	31.68	37.17	5.49	1101.10	1	147
1/23/2007	8/17/2007	31.98	37.17	5.19	1106.29	1	144
1/30/2007	8/17/2007	33.57	37.17	3.60	1109.89	1	139
2/13/2007	8/17/2007	36.29	37.17	0.88	1110.77	1	129
2/26/2007	8/17/2007	38.13	37.17	-0.96	1109.81	1	121
3/1/2007	8/17/2007	37.68	37.17	-0.51	1109.30	1	118
3/6/2007	8/17/2007	37.36	37.17	-0.19	1109.11	1	115
3/22/2007	8/17/2007	37.34	37.17	-0.17	1108.94	1	103
4/10/2007	8/17/2007	37.38	37.17	-0.21	1108.73	1	91
4/13/2007	8/17/2007	36.34	37.17	0.83	1109.56	1	88
4/24/2007	8/17/2007	37.02	37.17	0.15	1109.71	1	81
5/16/2007	8/17/2007	40.70	37.17	-3.53	1106.18	1	65
6/8/2007	8/17/2007	41.45	37.17	-4.28	1101.90	1	49
7/10/2007	8/17/2007	44.95	37.17	-7.78	1094.12	1	28
9/18/2007	12/17/2007	38.43	40.83	2.40	1096.52	1	63
10/16/2007	12/17/2007	44.84	40.83	-4.01	1092.51	1	43
11/7/2007	1/8/2008	45.79	38.06	-7.73	1084.78	1	41
11/19/2007	1/10/2008	42.86	36.36	-6.50	1078.28	1	35
11/28/2007	1/10/2008	42.76	36.36	-6.40	1071.88	1	29
12/28/2007	1/15/2008	41.26	33.60	-7.66	1064.22	1	11
1/9/2008	3/19/2008	37.46	30.46	-7.00	1057.22	1	48
1/15/2008	3/19/2008	33.60	30.46	-3.14	1054.08	1	44
2/4/2008	3/14/2008	39.16	31.56	-7.60	1046.48	1	28
2/20/2008	3/19/2008	35.52	30.46	-5.06	1041.42	1	20
3/4/2008	3/20/2008	34.64	27.28	-7.36	1034.06	1	12
3/11/2008	3/20/2008	35.12	27.28	-7.84	1026.22	1	7
3/17/2008	7/8/2008	31.06	34.13	3.07	1029.29	1	78
4/2/2008	7/8/2008	32.79	34.13	1.34	1030.63	1	67
4/9/2008	7/8/2008	30.01	34.13	4.12	1034.75	1	62
4/23/2008	7/8/2008	31.52	34.13	2.61	1037.36	1	52
5/12/2008	7/8/2008	37.76	34.13	-3.63	1033.73	1	39
5/21/2008	7/8/2008	37.35	34.13	-3.22	1030.51	1	32
5/27/2008	7/8/2008	40.38	34.13	-6.25	1024.26	1	29
6/4/2008	7/7/2008	43.50	35.60	-7.90	1016.36	1	22
6/18/2008	8/1/2008	38.66	31.64	-7.02	1009.34	1	31
7/1/2008	8/1/2008	39.11	31.64	-7.47	1001.87	1	22
7/3/2008	8/4/2008	36.96	29.70	-7.26	994.61	1	21
7/10/2008	8/4/2008	33.63	29.70	-3.93	990.68	1	17
8/4/2008	9/2/2008	29.70	25.10	-4.60	986.08	1	20
8/8/2008	9/2/2008	31.15	25.10	-6.05	980.03	1	16
8/26/2008	9/4/2008	28.75	22.68	-6.07	973.96	1	6
9/26/2008	10/6/2008	21.32	17.14	-4.18	969.78	1	6
10/7/2008	10/27/2008	17.25	12.72	-4.53	965.25	1	14
10/15/2008	10/24/2008	18.69	15.25	-3.44	961.81	1	7
11/10/2008	11/20/2008	21.11	16.31	-4.80	957.01	1	8
11/13/2008	1/22/2009	19.34	18.56	-0.78	956.23	1	46
11/28/2008	1/22/2009	19.59	18.56	-1.03	955.20	1	36
12/4/2008	1/22/2009	17.11	18.56	1.45	956.65	1	32
12/10/2008	1/22/2009	19.76	18.56	-1.20	955.45	1	28
1/26/2009	3/9/2009	18.00	18.60	0.60	956.05	1	29
2/9/2009	2/17/2009	24.35	19.59	-4.76	951.29	1	5
2/25/2009	5/7/2010	20.06	29.65	9.59	960.88	1	302
3/5/2009	5/7/2010	19.68	29.65	9.97	970.85	1	296
3/17/2009	5/7/2010	23.03	29.65	6.62	977.47	1	288
4/20/2009	5/7/2010	23.07	29.65	6.58	984.05	1	265
5/29/2009	5/7/2010	22.48	29.65	7.17	991.22	1	237
6/3/2009	5/7/2010	24.35	29.65	5.30	996.52	1	234
6/10/2009	5/7/2010	25.02	29.65	4.63	1001.15	1	229
7/17/2009	5/7/2010	22.09	29.65	7.56	1008.71	1	203
7/23/2009	5/7/2010	23.66	29.65	5.99	1014.70	1	199
8/3/2009	5/7/2010	25.90	29.65	3.75	1018.45	1	192
9/1/2009	5/7/2010	28.78	29.65	0.87	1019.32	1	171
10/7/2009	5/7/2010	31.24	29.65	-1.59	1017.73	1	146
10/26/2009	5/7/2010	34.30	29.65	-4.65	1013.08	1	133
10/30/2009	5/7/2010	34.08	29.65	-4.43	1008.65	1	129
12/16/2009	4/16/2010	37.53	30.65	-6.88	1001.77	1	82
1/19/2010	5/7/2010	36.59	29.65	-6.94	994.83	1	76
2/10/2010	5/17/2010	32.45	28.41	-4.04	990.79	1	66
2/12/2010	5/17/2010	33.32	28.41	-4.91	985.88	1	64
3/19/2010	5/17/2010	33.11	28.41	-4.70	981.18	1	40
4/14/2010	11/8/2010	31.71	37.37	5.66	986.84	0	145
4/29/2010	11/8/2010	31.65	37.37	5.72	992.56	0	134
5/18/2010	11/8/2010	28.69	37.37	8.68	1001.24	0	121
5/27/2010	11/8/2010	27.69	37.37	9.68	1010.92	0	114
6/3/2010	11/8/2010	28.06	37.37	9.31	1020.23	0	110
6/8/2010	11/8/2010	28.85	37.37	8.52	1028.75	0	107
6/17/2010	11/8/2010	28.94	37.37	8.43	1037.18	0	100
7/27/2010	11/8/2010	30.36	37.37	7.01	1044.19	0	73
8/17/2010	11/8/2010	29.71	37.37	7.66	1051.85	0	58
8/31/2010	11/8/2010	28.55	37.37	8.82	1060.67	0	48
9/8/2010	11/8/2010	29.73	37.37	7.64	1068.31	0	43
9/27/2010	11/8/2010	31.01	37.37	6.36	1074.67	0	30
10/19/2010	11/8/2010	33.33	37.37	4.04	1078.71	0	14
10/21/2010	11/8/2010	33.74	37.37	3.63	1082.34	0	12

Total Session Units Invested 49994
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 20.85

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	189 at $5.00	33 at $15.00	$106,793.99
100	189 at $30.00	33 at $30.00	$101,573.99
1000	189 at $5.00	33 at $15.00	$1,080,899.86
1000	189 at $30.00	33 at $30.00	$1,075,679.86

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