Trading Strategy Analysis of PDCO

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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for PDCO
Best Returnat StopEpisodesLength Best +10at Stop -5 to -25
Buy and Hold0.34 %0.211201.00
Buy On Rise Hold3.18 %0.181363.22
Buy On Dip Hold3.42 %0.221124.25
Signal and Hold2.93 %0.171453.11
Stops Only10.92 %-0.122.00124.9610.92 %-0.12-1.04 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops11.97 %-0.122.00116.9111.97 %-0.124.99 %
Buy Signals22.19 %-0.122.00137.1922.19 %-0.1210.85 %
All Methods24.32 %-0.122.00131.4424.32 %-0.1218.54 %

The table above summarizes the results of the full range of stop-loss settings for PDCO when applied to several different mechanical trading strategies over every trading session during the past 10 years. These results for sliding stop strategies are obtained by resetting the stop loss after the weekly closing. The top lines of the table show results from several variations on the classic Buy and Hold strategy, for which the concept of stops does not apply. Although this venerable strategy is frequently praised, in the most simple form, it failed for this company, with a loss of 0.00 %.

Buy and Hold strategy in the most simple form is exercised by buying on every day of the test period, and holding the issue to the end . Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold.

Our tests show it is generally better to buy on the dips rather than trying to follow the momentum of the market. But PDCO is an exception to that rule. Both strategies offer improvement over the unadorned Buy and Hold. Using technical indicators to buy and then hold, improves on the simple Buy and Hold strategy, but is still not the best.

Strategies lacking a stop-loss policy are too dangerous, given that every stock, sooner or later, will become worthless.

From the Report Dated 11/4/2010: -12 % has been the best sliding stop-loss setting for PDCO in the past. This assumes the stops are adjusted on the week-end. This setting has produced a historical yield of 11.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).

PDCO:  Sliding Stops Reset Daily

How to set sliding stop limits for Patterson Companies, Inc.:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Sliding Stops Reset Weekly of Patterson Companies, Inc.


Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

PDCO:  Sliding Stops Reset Monthly

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

General Market Conditions

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Sliding stops trimmed by sell signals of Patterson Companies, Inc.
Buy Signals and sliding stops of Patterson Companies, Inc.
PDCO:  Buy Signals and sliding stops




Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %
StartEndBuy InEnd PriceDifTotalTypeSessions
5/17/200111/21/200216.0620.294.234.231378
7/9/200111/21/200216.9820.293.317.541343
7/30/200111/21/200217.0220.293.2710.811328
8/22/200111/21/200216.6420.293.6514.461311
8/29/200111/21/200216.8520.293.4417.901306
11/26/200111/21/200219.2320.291.0618.961249
12/26/200111/21/200220.5020.29-0.2118.751228
4/4/200211/21/200222.7320.29-2.4416.311162
11/21/20024/14/200320.2918.81-1.4814.83197
12/3/20024/14/200319.8018.81-0.9913.84190
12/11/20024/14/200321.2718.81-2.4611.38184
12/13/20024/14/200320.8818.81-2.079.31182
2/27/20034/14/200321.5418.81-2.736.58132
4/3/20037/6/200521.3842.1820.8027.381568
4/14/20037/6/200518.8142.1823.3750.751561
4/17/20037/6/200517.6342.1824.5575.301558
8/18/20037/6/200526.7542.1815.4390.731474
5/26/200510/7/200545.0037.62-7.3883.35193
6/6/200510/7/200546.0837.62-8.4674.89187
7/8/200511/18/200541.5634.65-6.9167.98194
8/25/200511/18/200539.0034.65-4.3563.63160
10/10/200511/18/200539.5534.65-4.9058.73129
11/18/200511/21/200734.6528.78-5.8752.861504
8/24/200611/21/200731.0228.78-2.2450.621313
9/5/200611/21/200730.7928.78-2.0148.611306
11/22/200611/21/200736.3828.78-7.6041.011250
2/22/200711/21/200734.8328.78-6.0534.961190
3/16/200711/21/200732.8428.78-4.0630.901174
11/21/20076/27/200828.7829.460.6831.581150
11/27/20076/27/200829.6729.46-0.2131.371147
4/15/20087/1/200832.7528.84-3.9127.46154
10/30/200811/19/200825.4219.47-5.9521.51114
11/21/20083/9/200917.9316.20-1.7319.78171
5/21/20097/21/201019.9726.506.5326.311293
6/3/201011/4/201030.2528.20-2.0524.260108
7/21/201011/4/201026.5028.201.7025.96075


Total Session Units Invested 7863
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 3.28
Unit SharesMarket Order CommissionsStop Order CommissionsProfit
10036 at $5.0012 at $15.00$2,236.00
10036 at $30.0012 at $30.00$1,156.00
100036 at $5.0012 at $15.00$25,600.01
100036 at $30.0012 at $30.00$24,520.01


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