Molson Coors Brewing Company Trading Strategy

TAP Stop Loss Techniques

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Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for TAP

	Best Return	at Stop	Episodes	Length	Best +10	at Stop	-5 to -25
Buy and Hold	12.04 %		0.21	1201.00
Buy On Rise Hold	11.21 %		0.23	1101.46
Buy On Dip Hold	13.46 %		0.27	926.90
Signal and Hold	12.95 %		0.18	1433.19
Stops Only	24.73 %	-0.02	19.00	13.08	12.04 %	-0.47	1.64 %
Sell Signal Trim Stops	27.81 %	-0.02	20.00	12.35	12.42 %	-0.14	3.70 %
Buy Signals	65.31 %	-0.01	34.00	7.44	13.26 %	-0.16	9.93 %
All Methods	65.85 %	-0.01	37.00	6.74	20.81 %	-0.14	13.70 %

This table shows the results some simple trading policies from brute-force calculations on every trading day during the last 10 years. The concept of stops does not apply to the top few entries, which are various flavors of the well known Buy and Hold strategy. This much used strategy yielded 12.00 %.

The most basic flavor of the Buy and Hold strategy is tested by buying on every day of the period, then holding all the way to the present date. Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold.

Generally, we have found the Buy-On-Dip policy to offer better returns than the Buy-On-Rise. That is true in this case, indicating some of the benefit of betting against the crowd when investing. Using technical indicators to buy and then hold, improves on the simple Buy and Hold strategy, but is still not the best.

The worst defect of the various Buy and Hold strategies is that they do not offer a methodology for cutting losses.

From the Report Dated 11/5/2010: At least from the standpoint of a single company strategy, the best setting over the past 10 years has been -2 percent for TAP when adjusting stops weekly. However, setting stops this close can result in excess transactions. The best stop wider than 10 percent is -47 percent. This has historically produced a yield during holding periods that annualizes to 12.00 %.

How to set sliding stop limits for Molson Coors Brewing Company:

Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee.

Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.

Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years.

The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.

These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Molson Coors Brewing Company:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Moving Averages

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Risk-Volatility

Bernoulli Analysis

Momentum Investing

Sentiment

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Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-loss

Trailing stops set at -18.00 %

Start	End	Buy In	End Price	Dif	Total	Type	Sessions
4/26/2001	9/19/2001	23.02	18.84	-4.18	-4.18	1	97
10/25/2001	7/10/2002	20.39	24.15	3.76	-0.42	1	176
6/19/2002	2/6/2003	26.44	22.06	-4.38	-4.80	1	160
7/19/2002	2/6/2003	22.26	22.06	-0.20	-5.00	1	139
9/24/2002	2/6/2003	24.48	22.06	-2.42	-7.42	1	93
10/1/2002	2/6/2003	25.05	22.06	-2.99	-10.41	1	88
10/21/2002	2/6/2003	29.55	22.06	-7.49	-17.90	1	74
12/2/2002	2/6/2003	27.73	22.06	-5.67	-23.57	1	45
12/27/2002	2/6/2003	26.17	22.06	-4.11	-27.68	1	27
2/6/2003	4/28/2005	22.06	28.38	6.32	-21.36	1	560
4/29/2003	4/28/2005	23.07	28.38	5.31	-16.05	1	504
6/19/2003	4/28/2005	22.45	28.38	5.93	-10.12	1	468
7/2/2003	4/28/2005	21.68	28.38	6.70	-3.42	1	459
7/24/2003	4/28/2005	21.80	28.38	6.58	3.16	1	444
11/19/2003	4/28/2005	24.56	28.38	3.82	6.98	1	361
12/29/2003	4/28/2005	24.87	28.38	3.51	10.49	1	335
2/3/2004	4/28/2005	24.99	28.38	3.39	13.88	1	311
2/5/2004	4/28/2005	27.24	28.38	1.14	15.02	1	309
7/19/2004	4/28/2005	33.68	28.38	-5.30	9.72	1	197
9/30/2004	4/28/2005	30.37	28.38	-1.99	7.73	1	145
11/2/2004	4/28/2005	30.32	28.38	-1.94	5.79	1	122
11/29/2004	4/28/2005	32.77	28.38	-4.39	1.40	1	104
4/28/2005	1/18/2008	28.38	43.70	15.32	16.72	1	686
5/5/2005	1/18/2008	28.36	43.70	15.34	32.06	1	681
5/10/2005	1/18/2008	27.84	43.70	15.86	47.92	1	678
9/16/2005	1/18/2008	30.48	43.70	13.22	61.14	1	588
2/2/2006	1/18/2008	28.70	43.70	15.00	76.14	1	493
2/9/2006	1/18/2008	28.82	43.70	14.88	91.02	1	488
2/21/2006	1/18/2008	28.95	43.70	14.75	105.77	1	481
4/21/2006	1/18/2008	32.48	43.70	11.22	116.99	1	439
5/15/2006	1/18/2008	30.55	43.70	13.15	130.14	1	423
6/7/2006	1/18/2008	31.39	43.70	12.31	142.45	1	407
8/1/2006	1/18/2008	31.19	43.70	12.51	154.96	1	369
10/5/2006	1/18/2008	29.98	43.70	13.72	168.68	1	323
10/31/2006	1/18/2008	33.04	43.70	10.66	179.34	1	305
1/3/2007	1/18/2008	36.38	43.70	7.32	186.66	1	263
10/9/2007	1/18/2008	52.95	43.70	-9.25	177.41	1	70
1/31/2008	8/26/2008	42.25	45.35	3.10	180.51	1	144
2/12/2008	8/26/2008	46.97	45.35	-1.62	178.89	1	136
8/5/2008	10/9/2008	45.87	38.72	-7.15	171.74	1	46
8/18/2008	10/10/2008	46.71	35.94	-10.77	160.97	1	38
11/4/2009	11/5/2010	44.09	50.25	6.16	167.13	0	253
1/27/2010	11/5/2010	42.07	50.25	8.18	175.31	0	197

Total Session Units Invested 12726
Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 5.31

Unit Shares	Market Order Commissions	Stop Order Commissions	Profit
100	43 at $5.00	9 at $15.00	$17,181.00
100	43 at $30.00	9 at $30.00	$15,971.00
1000	43 at $5.00	9 at $15.00	$174,959.99
1000	43 at $30.00	9 at $30.00	$173,749.99

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