Trading Strategy Analysis of VLO |
From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web. |
Annualized Returns of Trading Strategies for VLO
These figures represent the annualized yields from several strategies for VLO, conducted mechanically for 10 years. The top lines of the table show results from several variations on the classic Buy and Hold strategy, for which the concept of stops does not apply. This much used strategy yielded 3.00 %. Buy and Hold strategy in the most simple form is exercised by buying on every day of the test period, and holding the issue to the end . Many people practice some of the more realistic versions of Buy and Hold, for example, Momentum Investors might buy on rising prices and then hold. A speculator with a bit of sophistication might buy on dipping prices, while a technician might wait for technical signals to buy and then hold. Our tests show it is generally better to buy on the dips rather than trying to follow the momentum of the market. But VLO is an exception to that rule. The best of these strategies trigger the buy on technical indicators. All the buy and hold strategies suffer from a dangerous defect, as they do not cut losses. The statistics underestimate the harm of this defect, because market statistics are based on companies that survive. Doctors bury their mistakes, but Exchanges de-list them. From the Report Dated 11/5/2010: -22 % has been the best sliding stop-loss setting for VLO in the past. This assumes the stops are adjusted on the week-end. This setting has produced a historical yield of 81.00 %. (The yield during the holding period is annualized to provide this figure).
How to set sliding stop limits for Valero Energy Corporation:Stop loss limit orders would appear to be almost always desirable. But where to set the stop limit is controversial. Setting to limit too low may allow for too great a loss. But setting the limit too high may cause the trade to "stop out" prematurely, perhaps missing a rally and also incurring an unwelcome brokerage fee. Two issues need to be settled in arriving at a stop limit strategy. The first is to determine the price to position the stop loss at a percentage below the buy-in price. The second is to determine a strategy for raising or sliding the stop to lock in gains without undue risk of prematurely "stopping out" on some insignificant dip in price.
Some would advise you to set the stops at what you feel to be an acceptable loss. However, "feeling" is an extremely misleading guide. These charts are the output of a "brute force" calculation giving results for every stop loss setting from one percent to fifty percent on every trading day of the past ten years. The bars represent the annual percentage appreciation achieved for each stop loss setting. This percentage is numbered on the right (blue) axis. The purple line depicts the number of "stop outs" on average per year at each stop loss setting . Transaction costs directly relate to this number on the left (purple) axis.
These charts represent different strategies for "sliding" the stops to lock in gains. The first simply moves the stop up every day to the pre-determined percentage below the close price. The others move the stops up at the end of every week, and at the end of every month. Generally speaking, it seems better to move the stops less frequently than daily. |  Subscribe More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Valero Energy Corporation: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Technical Buy Signals and Trailing Stop-lossTrailing stops set at -18.00 %
Total Session Units Invested 3420 Sessions In Time Span 2398 Avg. Units Invested 1.43
Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Valero Energy Corporation
Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.ComThis site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. |
